Hypothetical MH370 Flight Path to Shahbaz Air Base in Jacobabad, Pakistan (ICAO code: OPJA)

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I created a picture to show a hypothetical flight path to Shahbaz Air Base in Jacobabad, Pakistan (ICAO code: OPJA), that MH370 might have flown.

As I have stated in previous posts, MH370 and UAE343 were near each other at 18:22 UTC. Therefore MH370 would have been able to travel the same approximate distance as UAE343 had by 00:19 UTC. (UAE343 was near its destination of Dubai International Airport in the United Arab Emirates at that time.)

My hypothetical flight path assumes the following:

1) MH370 shadowed UAE343 in order to fly through India's airspace without being detected by India's primary radars.
2) Once MH370 was beyond India's primary radar detection range, it broke formation with UAE343 at waypoint BRAVO and flew to Shahbaz Air Base in Jacobabad, Pakistan.
3) United States troops are no longer stationed at Shahbaz Air Base in Jacobabad, Pakistan.
4) Inmarsat's Arc Timing Rings are incorrect (either intentionally or due to error).

I used the following requirements criteria to select possible military airports where MH370 could've landed by the time of the last satellite communication at 00:19 UTC (MH370 Log-On Request to satellite):

1) Airport must have a runway that is long enough for a Boeing 777 to land and take off from.
2) Airport must have a hangar inside of which MH370 could've been hidden.

I used this site to find military airports in Pakistan, then looked at satellite views of them, to see if they had hangars.

Shahbaz Air Base matched all of the criteria.

I eliminated the following airports as being too far to reach, because I used a conservative estimate for the distance that MH370 could have traveled from waypoint BRAVO to a landing location in Pakistan:

Chandhar Air Base (32°04'40"N 73°47'25"E)
Murid Air Base (32°54'34"N 72°46'29"E)
Dhamial Army, Qasim (OPQS)
Shorkot Road Air Base, Rafiqui (OPRQ)
Sargodha Air Base, (OPSR)

The Investigators (Malaysia, Australia, UK, US) involved in the search for MH370 have described the actions on board MH370 as being deliberate, however, the Investigators' actions have been deliberate as well:

1) On March 13, the Investigators leaked to the press the idea that MH370 had crashed in the Indian Ocean. Yet it wasn't until the Black Box ULB batteries were within days of their 30 day expiration point that they began attempting to detect underwater signals from them.
2) Prior to commencing the search for underwater signals, Inmarsat had already identified a "hotspot" location where their analysis showed that MH370 had crashed, yet the Investigators didn't send their ships to that location.
3) On April 5, the Investigators detected underwater signals that at the time their own "analyses determined" "were not consistent with" a ULB signal, yet they intentionally spent 8 weeks investigating them.
4) On May 27, the Investigators released Inmarsat's MH370 Data Communication Logs file, yet they intentionally withheld MH370's initial Log-on Request with the satellite (and subsequent messages) from that file.

Based on those four facts, it appears to me that the Investigators are intentionally providing misinformation to the public. There could be several reasons for them doing that.

This post about a hypothetical landing at a military base in Pakistan is based on the following considerations:

1) The actions on board MH370 were deliberate.
2) MH370 lined up very close to UAE343 at 18:22 UTC.
3) Osama bin Laden lived in Pakistan for 9 years until US Special Forces killed him on May 02, 2011.
4) A stolen Boeing 777 can be loaded with a deadly payload, flown to a target, and detonated, with no traceability back to the country that initiated the attack.

Notes:
1) I am not saying MH370 did land in Pakistan. I am only saying that it was possible.

Flight Path:

WMKK WMKN IGARI BITOD IGARI WMKC WMKP
N6.66E95.94 N14.3E80.25 N16.51E75 N17.82E72.75 N18.92E70.6 BRAVO OPJA

That flight plan and average speed of 470 kts can be plotted on SkyVector.

Approximate UTC times and locations for UAE343 from FlightRadar24:

18:28 N6.66E95.94    MH370 in close proximity of UAE343
20:40 N14.3E80.25    UAE343 enters India
21:27 N16.51E75      UAE343 makes slight NW turn
21:43 N17.82E72.75   UAE343 exits India
22:08 N18.92E70.6    UAE343 goes out of range
23:41 N23.88E59.28   UAE343 flying
00:25 OMDB           UAE343 lands

Investigators knew underwater signals invalid, yet they chose to waste 8 weeks investigating them

The MH370 Search Areas Report dated June 26, 2014 proves the fact that the Investigators knew the underwater signals detected by Ocean Shield were invalid, yet they chose to waste 8 weeks investigating them.

It is also a fact that prior to the detection of those underwater signals, the Investigators leading the search for MH370 already knew Inmarsat's "hotspot" location for MH370. 

From the June 26 report:

The flight recorders fitted to 9M-MRO were equipped with Dukane DK100 underwater acoustic beacons that activate on immersion in salt or fresh water. The beacons had the following characteristics:
- Operating frequency: 37.5 ± 1 kHz
- Pulse Length: 10 ms
- Repetition rate: 1 pulse per second
- Operating life following immersion: minimum 30 days

The ADV-OS deployed the first towfish on 4 April 2014. The first towfish exhibited acoustic noise and was required to be changed out with the second towfish. The second towfish was deployed on 5 April 2014 and shortly after, whilst descending, detected an acoustic signal at a frequency of approximately 33 kHz. Further detections were made on 5 April 2014 and on 8 April; however, none were able to be repeated when following an opposing track. The first towfish was redeployed with no detections.

A review of the Ocean Shield acoustic signals was undertaken independently by various specialists. The analyses determined that the signals recorded were not consistent with the nominal performance standards of the Dukane DK100 underwater acoustic beacon. The analyses also noted that whilst unlikely, the acoustic signals could be consistent with a damaged ULB. However, it was decided that that an ocean floor sonar search should be performed to fully investigate the detections.

Inmarsat's "hotspot" location known prior to detection of underwater pings (BBC Horizon programme)

Chris Ashton, Inmarsat

Chris Moore, Phoenix International

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The BBC Two's Horizon programme "Where is Flight MH370?" revealed the fact that prior to the Ocean Shield detecting any underwater pings, the Investigators leading the search for MH370 already knew Inmarsat's "hotspot" location for MH370, and Inmarsat themselves expected Ocean Shield to go to that hotspot location to listen for pings from MH370's black boxes.

But that isn't what happened.

Instead, Ocean Shield spent 2 months searching an area where they had detected four underwater signals that were outside of the specifications of a black box Underwater Locator Beacon (ULB).

The programme also documented the fact that the experts on the Ocean Shield were aware that false detections were possible, because it had happened with HMS Echo.

Yet the Investigators expect everyone to believe that they didn't realize the four underwater signals detected by Ocean Shield weren't valid until 8 weeks later.

That is implausible.

The Investigators had absolute confidence in Inmarsat's analysis, so when the team detected signals that weren't in Inmarsat's "hotspot" location, why wouldn't they verify them?

The experts onboard Ocean Shield knew HMS Echo had detected an invalid signal, so for that reason alone, why wouldn't they verify the signals they detected?

And despite Chris Moore, of Phoenix International, stating during the programme that they did verify the signals, the Investigators didn't announce that the signals weren't valid until 8 weeks later.


The following is my transcript of statements made by Chris Ashton of Inmarsat, and Chris Moore of Phoenix International, during the BBC Two's Horizon programme "Where is Flight MH370?" which aired on June 17, 2014. The youtube video for the programme is here.

Starting at 43:43 Chris Ashton of Inmarsat said, "We can identify a path that matches exactly with all those frequency measurements and with the timing measurements and lands on the final arc at a particular location, which then gives us a sort of a hotspot area on the final arc where we believe the most likely area is."

Starting at 45:01 Chris Moore, of Phoenix International, who had been on Ocean Shield, said, "HMS Echo believed they had detected a 37 and a half kilohertz pulse in the water so we headed to that area and came up with a search plan."

Starting at 47:28 Chris Moore said, "During that survey leg HMS Echo was able to deduce that the 37 and a half kilohertz pings they were hearing were, uh, not valid."

Starting at 47:46 Chris Moore said, "At that point we regrouped and went back to our best known last position, being the, uh, eight minute arc, and our intention was to work our way south. South was determined to have a higher probability, a more probable, uh, flight path."

Note: The "eight minute arc" refers to time 00:19 UTC, when MH370 sent a Log-on message to the satellite/ground station, the satellite/ground station sent several messages back to MH370, and then MH370 sent an Acknowledge back to the satellite/ground station.

Starting at 48:33 Chris Moore said, "It's theorized to have been that the plane was going down. Low on fuel. It did a roll. When the plane rolled the fuel then uh the engine was able to restart and part of the startup sequence was initializing this, this handshake with the Inmarsat. And it was a incomplete handshake. So we're working on the premise that perhaps this last handshake is where the plane was in its final stages."

Starting at 55:25 Chris Moore said, "And we had a detection. Big moment. Uh, are you sure that's what we heard? Are you sure that's what we're, is it not us? Uh, you know. It was elation and panic, and self doubt. Um, wonderment to let's get busy and find this thing. Let's track it down."

Starting at 56:15 Chris Ashton said, "My thoughts were they were probably going to traverse down the final arc to go over our hotspot area. But of course they, they found their, their ping detection fairly early on."

Starting at 56:35 Chris Moore said, "The decision was made, uh, we had enough detections, and it was time to shift over to the AUV ops."

Starting at 57:39 Chris Aston said, "It was by no means, um, an unrealistic location but it was further to the north east than our area of highest probability."

Inmarsat's "hotspot" location (BBC Horizon programme)

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I captured screen images from BBC Two's Horizon programme "Where is Flight MH370?" that show the location where Inmarsat's analysis indicates MH370 crashed in the Indian Ocean.

During the programme, Inmarsat stated:

"We can identify a path that matches exactly with all those frequency measurements and with the timing measurements and lands on the final arc at a particular location, which then gives us a sort of a hotspot area on the final arc where we believe the most likely area is," explained (Chris) Ashton.
(Transcript Source: The Guardian)

The programme itself stated:

"Horizon understands Inmarsat's hotspot on the final arc is around 28 degrees south. It is an area yet to be searched."

Yet despite Inmarsat's certainty of their precise final location of MH370, and despite all of the Investigators hailing Inmarsat's analysis as accurate and verified, not only did the Investigators not go to that location to listen for the Black Box underwater pings, the JACC has now postponed the release of their new search zone definition from mid-June to the end of June.

Why is the JACC delaying releasing their new search zone definition, when Inmarsat knows the precise location of MH370, and knew that location prior to taping the Horizon programme?

The Horizon programme itself was misleading, in that it referred to "7 Handshake signals", and defined a "Handshake" as being a signal that was initiated by the satellite/ground station and sent to MH370.

At 18:25 UTC, MH370 initiated a Log-on to the satellite/ground station.

The Horizon programme failed to point out that the 18:25 UTC message was initiated by MH370, not the satellite/ground station, and they didn't provide any explanation for that message.

Note that the last military radar detection of MH370 was at 18:22 UTC. MH370 stopped communicating with the satellite/ground station at 17:07 UTC, but then it initiated a Log-on to the satellite/ground station three minutes after it was no longer within the military radar's range. This is also the same time that MH370 was within close proximity of UAE343. The Horizon programme never mentioned that fact, either.

At 00:19 UTC, MH370 initiated a Log-on to the satellite/ground station.

The Horizon programme described the 00:19 UTC message as a "partial Handshake" that some Investigators have theorized was due to the plane rolling (banking) and fuel restarting the engines, which caused the "startup sequence" on MH370. They also described the message as an "incomplete handshake" despite the fact that MH370 initiated the Log-on and subsequently sent a Log-on/Log-off Acknowledge. While additional messages might have been expected after the Acknowledge, to describe the sequence of messages at 00:19 UTC as "incomplete" is misleading.

On March 13, the US Government was certain MH370 had crashed in the Indian Ocean. They never even mentioned the possibility of MH370 having flown on the "northern arc" path.

White House spokesman Jay Carney said, “It's my understanding that based on some new information that's not necessarily conclusive, but new information, an additional search area may be opened in the Indian Ocean, and we are consulting with international partners about the appropriate assets to deploy.”

The Horizon programme showed a news clip of Jay Carney, and Inmarsat said the information the US Government was referring to had come from them.

So on March 13, the US, the UK, and Australia knew, with certainty, that MH370 could only be in the Indian Ocean, at the location identified by Inmarsat, yet that location still has not been searched. And they wasted two months searching an area where they had detected underwater signals that they should have known were outside of the specifications for a Black Box Underwater Locator Beacon (ULB). And that delay brought them closer to Winter in the southern hemisphere, when the ocean would be too harsh to search, allowing them to postpone the search for several months.

I have tried to remain neutral in my blog posts, but as time goes by, it gets harder to withhold my disbelief and skepticism in what the Investigators claim.