Hypothetical MH370 flight path to Perth, shot down ~S22E101

Hover over images to open them in a larger view.

From time to time, I check to see if there are any new developments with MH370.

I saw some recent comments that interested me enough to revisit one of my theories about MH370.

Assuming the "Chillit" MH370 crash site debris location is correct, then I am reasserting my theory that MH370 was shot down as it headed for Perth, Australia.

There is / was a third party scientific ocean search going on coincidentally in the same location where Mike Chillit calculated MH370 crashed.

For the record, I don’t know, nor have I ever communicated with, Mike Chillit nor the third party. This blog post and theory are my own, not his or theirs.

The ocean search coordinates of interest are:

-22.25, 102.09
-22.235, 102.81

Note: He shows the MH370 crash location (pin 7) about half way between those coordinates.

-22.25, 102.09 => -22° 15' 0", 102° 5' 24" (221500S1020524E)
-22.235, 102.81 => -22° 14' 5.9994", 102° 48' 36" (221406S1024836E)

I don’t normally generate a flight path to match the coordinates I’m investigating, but I made an exception in this case, for the following reason. If the "Chillit" MH370 crash location is correct, and my theory that MH370 was shot down while it was flying toward Perth, Australia is also correct, then I needed to determine whether or not the search coordinates were near a standard flight route.

Early in the disappearance, the Investigators implied that MH370 flew by waypoints and that it flew directly south. While I don’t believe everything the Investigators said (see my other blog posts for my reasons why), I incorporated that information into a hypothetical flight path for MH370 flying into Perth, with the goal of avoiding JORN’s detection range for as long as possible, before approaching on a standard flight route. The route also needed to coincide with the suggested MH370 crash site debris location coordinates.

The route that I formulated meets that criteria. (Note: I determined this MH370 flight path independent of what others may have calculated it to be.)

Flight Path to Perth:

WMKK WMKN IGARI BITOD IGARI WMKP NILAM
175154S0955847E MERIB YPPH
Distance: 3685.7 nm

Flight Path to interception (shoot down) location:

WMKK WMKN IGARI BITOD IGARI WMKP NILAM
175154S0955847E 221535S1012341E 221500S1020524E 221406S1024836E
Distance: 2794.5 nm

Note: All GPS coordinates in the interception (shoot down) and debris locations are approximate and based on "Chillit" image data from https://twitter.com/MikeChillit/status/1395091322294489092

Additional notes: 1) The missile impact (shoot down) and debris locations are inside the JORN coverage area. 2) The debris is coincidentally located at almost the same Longitude as Kuala Lumpur International Airport (WMKK).


When I started this blog, I had tried to remain neutral, but as time went on in 2014, it became impossible to withhold my disbelief and skepticism in what the Investigators were claiming.

From the start of MH370’s disappearance, several Governments controlled the narrative about it via News organizations, with both "anonymous leaks" and "on the record" statements by various people.

The most obvious proof that there was an ongoing cover up was when the Government "experts" wasted two months searching an area where they had detected underwater signals that they should have known were outside of the specifications for a Black Box Underwater Locator Beacon (ULB). (See https://mh370research.blogspot.com/2014/06/inmarsats-hotspot-location-bbc-horizon.html)

If MH370’s debris is, in fact, where Mike Chillit calculated it to be, I can guarantee that no one will report that they found it nor that they recovered the black boxes there. Because if they did, at least one Government would have to explain a few things.

But then again, with the same News organizations that never questioned how the "experts" could waste two months pursuing a signal that did not match the specifications for a Black Box Underwater Locator Beacon (ULB) (see https://mh370research.blogspot.com/2014/06/investigators-knew-underwater-signals.html), does anyone actually expect those News organizations to ask any questions now?

Also, never forget that when the "good guys" shoot down a commercial airplane (Iran Air Flight 655, July 3, 1988), it’s an accident, but when the "bad guys" do the exact same thing (MH17, July 17, 2014), it’s intentional. But that also depends on which Government is defining who the "good" and "bad" guys are.

In a post 9/11/2001 world, shooting down a non responsive rogue commercial airplane (MH370) before it reaches one’s land is a valid defensive action to take, yet no one is going to admit to doing that. (I could elaborate further, but I won’t.)

Final note: If you want to communicate with me, please leave your email in a comment, which I won’t publish. (In the past, someone wanted to communicate with me, but they only left their Twitter account information.)

MH370 Hijacked, then Shot Down or Landed

Hover over images to open them in a larger view.

I created this picture to show that if MH370's hijacker wanted to crash MH370 somewhere that it would not be found, he would have avoided the risk of detection by JORN by flying along path C shown in the picture.

MH370 took off from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia at 16:41 UTC, then disappeared from ATC screens approximately 40 minutes later, at ~17:21 UTC, when the hijacker turned off the transponder. Approximately 1 hour and 44 minutes after MH370 had taken off, MH370 initiated a never explained Log-on to the satellite/ground station at 18:25 UTC.

For 1 hour and 44 minutes, the hijacker's well thought out plan was executing flawlessly. After the transponder was turned off, MH370 had crossed through several country's ground radar detection ranges without challenge from any military airforce, all while maintaining a standard cruising altitude and speed. All of the evidence confirms the fact that the acts on board MH370 were deliberate.

Yet despite the initial success of the hijacking, investigators want everyone to believe that sometime after 1 hour and 44 minutes of normal flight, something went wrong. Over time, they have suggested sometimes contradictory explanations for what happened on board MH370:

1) The person (hijacker) in control of MH370 wanted to crash MH370 somewhere that it would not be found (yet flew MH370 into the detection range of JORN).
2) Everyone on board MH370 was unconscious when MH370 turned and headed south (yet MH370 initiated a never explained Log-on to the satellite/ground station at 18:25 UTC).
3) MH370 ran out of fuel and crashed south west of Perth at approximately 00:19 UTC (despite having enough fuel to travel much further than that).

My picture shows the following:

    the known flight path that MH370 took, up to 18:22 UTC
    MH370's estimated maximum range (based on UAE343)
    the MH370 search area
    JORN's coverage area
    the location where the debris was found
    a hypothetical flight path to Karachi, Pakistan
    a hypothetical flight path to Diego Garcia
    a hypothetical flight path to the South Pole
    a hypothetical flight path to Perth, Australia

Timeline of critical events during MH370's flight:

17:07 UTC MH370 ACARS turned off
17:21 UTC MH370 Transponder turned off
18:22 UTC last Malaysian military radar signal of MH370
18:25 UTC MH370 initiated a Log-on to the satellite/ground station
00:19 UTC MH370 initiated a Log-on to the satellite/ground station

Important note: at 18:22 UTC, MH370 was in close proximity to UAE343

I plotted the hypothetical flight plans on SkyVector:

A) WMKK WMKN IGARI BITOD IGARI WMKP NILAM VOMM AGELA PARAR OPKC
B) WMKK WMKN IGARI BITOD IGARI WMKP NILAM KADAP FJDG
C) WMKK WMKN IGARI BITOD IGARI WMKP NILAM VIROT SCRM
D) WMKK WMKN IGARI BITOD IGARI WMKP NILAM VIROT YPPH

A) Shadows UAE343 then lands in Pakistan and is hidden in hangar
B) Flies toward Diego Garcia and is shot down
C) Flies toward South Pole, avoiding JORN, runs out of fuel and crashes in the ocean
D) Flies toward Perth and is shot down

I have several questions about MH370 that I have never seen answered by any investigative journalist:

1) Was JORN on or off?
2) Why would MH370 run out of fuel in the search area, when its maximum range was further than that?
3) If the hijacker wanted to crash MH370 somewhere that it would not be found, why did he risk detection by JORN, instead of flying along path C?
4) Why did the MH370 searchers waste 8 weeks investigating underwater signals they detected that they knew, at the time they detected them, were outside of the specifications for an Underwater Locator Beacon (ULB)?
5) Why did Inmarsat withhold MH370's initial Log-on Messages?

Concluding Comments:

1) While I am saying that the actions on board MH370 were deliberate, I am not making any allegations about who the hijacker was. Although the pilot radioed ATC just before the transponder was turned off, that does not make him the hijacker, because he could have been under duress, obeying orders from a hijacker.
2) In my opinion, if the hijacker wanted to crash MH370 somewhere that it would not be found, he would have flown it along path C. Because he did not do that, there are only two other possibilities of where he was flying MH370:
     to a destination where he could land it and hide it inside a hangar
     to a destination for a 9/11 style attack

Please see previous blog posts and links about events that occurred during the search for MH370.

Hypothetical MH370 Flight Path to Perth or Diego Garcia

Hover over images to open them in a larger view. 

 As a result of the discovery of debris from MH370 that was found on Reunion Island (near Madagascar), on the beach at Saint-Andre, on Wednesday, July 29, 2015, I created a picture that shows the following:

• the known flight path that MH370 took, up to 18:22 UTC
• MH370's estimated maximum range (based on UAE343)
• the MH370 search area
• JORN's coverage area
• the location where the debris was found
• a hypothetical flight path to Perth, Australia
• a hypothetical flight path to Diego Garcia

Timeline of critical events during MH370's flight:

17:07 UTC MH370 ACARS turned off
17:21 UTC MH370 Transponder turned off
18:22 UTC last Malaysian military radar signal of MH370
18:25 UTC MH370 initiated a Log-on to the satellite/ground station

I plotted the hypothetical flight plans on SkyVector:

Flight Path to Perth:
WMKK WMKN IGARI BITOD IGARI WMKP NILAM VIROT YPPH

Flight Path to Diego Garcia:
WMKK WMKN IGARI BITOD IGARI WMKP NILAM KADAP FJDG

I have several questions about MH370 that I have never seen answered by any investigative journalist:

1) If MH370 crashed in the search area, why didn't JORN detect it?
2) Why did the MH370 searchers waste 8 weeks investigating underwater signals they detected that they knew, at the time they detected them, were outside of the specifications for an Underwater Locator Beacon (ULB)?
3) Why did Inmarsat withhold MH370's initial Log-on Messages?

Please see previous blog posts and links about events that occurred during the search for MH370.

Hypothetical MH370 flight path to Perth, Australia via Cocos Keeling Island

Hover over image to open it in a larger view.

I created a picture to show a hypothetical flight path to Perth, Australia, via Cocos Keeling Island, that MH370 might have flown. This should be my last follow up to my posts here and here.

The Investigators insist MH370 could only have flown south. Their diagrams show MH370 flying close to Cocos Keeling Island and then continuing southeast after that. But with no explanation whatsoever, they use extremely slow estimated speeds for MH370, ranging from 325 kts to 350 kts.

Coincidentally, those slow speeds prevent MH370 from reaching the outer detection range of JORN until close to the time of MH370's final communications with the Inmarsat satellite.

However, MH370 and UAE343 were near each other at 18:22 UTC. Therefore MH370 would have been able to travel the same approximate distance as UAE343 had by 00:19 UTC. (UAE343 was near its destination of Dubai International Airport in the United Arab Emirates at that time.)

The only way MH370 could've gotten from its last known transponder location near IGARI/BITOD at 17:21 UTC to WMPK (Penang/Butterworth) and then to VAMPI/MEKAR by 18:22 UTC, which is the path Investigators say it flew, is if it was flying at a minimum speed of approximately 470 kts.

So why would whoever was in control of MH370 suddenly decide to start flying at a slower speed, as the Investigators claim?

And how did whoever was in control of MH370 keep the rest of the passengers and crew subdued during this more than 6 hour flight diversion?

If MH370 did fly south, which one of these stories is more plausible, knowing that the person in control of MH370 took deliberate actions to evade detection while MH370 was flying:

1) The person in control of MH370 flew south to the middle of nowhere to commit suicide, rather than doing a nose dive immediately in the location where the transponder went off.
2) The person in control of MH370 flew south to the middle of nowhere to land on the runway of a remote island.
3) The person in control of MH370 flew south to commit a 9/11 style attack on Australia, which was reachable.

Notes:
1) I am not saying MH370 did fly toward Perth for a 9/11 style attack. I am only saying that it was possible. (See my previous posts for more details on that topic.)
2) Australia has never said whether or not JORN detected MH370.
3) I used the following to plot the course shown in the picture:

Flight Path:
WMKK WMKN IGARI BITOD IGARI WMCK WMKP VAMPI
MEKAR NILAM VIROT UPROB YPCC MERIB YPPH

That flight plan and speed can be plotted on SkyVector.

Approximate times based on 470 kts:

MEKAR 18:22 UTC
NILAM 18:26 UTC
VIROT 18:38 UTC
UPROB 19:16 UTC
YPCC  20:58 UTC (Cocos-Keeling Island)
MERIB 23:55 UTC
YPPH  00:21 UTC (Perth)

JORN's detection range and MH370

Hover over image to open it in a larger view.

I created a picture to show a hypothetical MH370 flight path to Perth, Australia and the estimated coverage (detection range) of JORN. This is a follow up to my previous post.

As I said in that post, the Investigators initially stated that the actions on board MH370 were consistent with deliberate action.

The Investigators also insist that MH370 flew south. Because of that, JORN is very relevant to MH370's disappearance.

Look at all of the diagrams where the Investigators show MH370 flying to, then compare that to the range of JORN at Laverton.

If JORN had been active at the time, it would've seen MH370. Presumably Australia would've sent fighter jets to intercept it, after it failed to respond to attempts to contact it over the radio. (I don't think Australia would've ignored it, the way Malaysia did when it flew over their land, but I could be wrong.)

Whoever was in control of MH370 took deliberate actions, including turning off the transponder when MH370 was in an ATC primary radar blind spot (as reported on BBC Two's Horizon programme "Where is Flight MH370?"). Perhaps this same person assumed JORN wouldn't be active (the literature all says that) and used that to his advantage as well.

Regardless of which exact flight path MH370 took, as it headed southeast in the Investigator's diagrams, it would've entered JORN's detection range.

Whoever was in control of MH370 was making every effort to evade detection. Therefore I think it is reasonable to conclude that if MH370 did fly south, the person in control of it relied on JORN not being active during the time that MH370 would be flying southeast. That also means the person took advantage of a weakness in Australia's defense, if MH370 actually did enter JORN's coverage area (even if that reason was because JORN was off at the time). However, Australia has never made a statement about whether or not JORN detected MH370.

Notes:
1) I am not saying MH370 did fly toward Perth for a 9/11 style attack. I am only saying that it was possible. (See my previous post for more details on that topic.)
2) The last flight leg shown in this picture, from Perth to Laverton, was only present to allow me to create a circle with an origin at Laverton, to show its estimated detection range.

JORN and MH370's possible flight path for a 9/11 style attack on Perth, Australia

Hover over image to open it in a larger view.

Based on the fact that the Investigators initially stated that the actions on board MH370 were consistent with deliberate action, and based on the fact that the Investigators insist MH370 could only have flown South, I decided to determine if Perth, Australia could be reached, within the time that the Investigators have said MH370 was communicating with the Inmarsat satellite/ground station, for a possible 9/11 style attack on Perth. It could.

I am not saying MH370 did fly toward Perth for a 9/11 style attack. I am only saying that it was possible, using these flight waypoints:

WMKK WMKN IGARI BITOD IGARI WMCK WMKP VAMPI MEKAR NILAM VIROT UPROB MERIB YPPH

Using a conservative estimate of 470 kts for that entire path, MH370 would've reached Perth in 7 hours and 34.5 minutes. That time is less than the 7 hours and 38 minutes that the Investigators say MH370 communicated with the Inmarsat satellite/ground station for, from its takeoff at 16:41 UTC to its final Log-on at 00:19 UTC.

That flight plan and speed can be plotted on SkyVector.

The deliberate actions on MH370 included relying on the fact that in the location where the transponder went off, MH370 was in an ATC primary radar blind spot (as reported on BBC Two's Horizon programme "Where is Flight MH370?"). If the final destination was Perth, the deliberate actions also appear to have relied on JORN not being active as MH370 approached. (Note that I prefaced that statement with "If".)

Australia has never made a statement about whether or not JORN, which has an operating range of 1000–3000km, detected MH370. However, if JORN's Laverton OTHR system, which has a coverage area that extends through 180 degrees, didn't detect MH370, it reveals a weakness in Australia's defense.


Initial news reports about deliberate action:

On March 13, ABC News reported that unnamed US officials told them the actions on board MH370 were deliberate.

On March 15, Malaysian prime minister Najib Razak confirmed those unnamed US officials' statements:

Early this morning I was briefed by the investigation team – which includes the FAA [US Federal Aviation Administration], NTSB [US National Transportation Safety Board], the AAIB [Uk Air Accidents Investigation Branch], the Malaysian authorities and the acting minister of transport – on new information that sheds further light on what happened to MH370.

Based on new satellite information, we can say with a high degree of certainty that the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) was disabled just before the aircraft reached the East coast of peninsular Malaysia. Shortly afterwards, near the border between Malaysian and Vietnamese air traffic control, the aircraft’s transponder was switched off.

From this point onwards, the Royal Malaysian Air Force primary radar showed that an aircraft which was believed – but not confirmed – to be MH370 did indeed turn back. It then flew in a westerly direction back over peninsular Malaysia before turning northwest. Up until the point at which it left military primary radar coverage, these movements are consistent with deliberate action by someone on the plane.

Today, based on raw satellite data that was obtained from the satellite data service provider, we can confirm that the aircraft shown in the primary radar data was flight MH370. After much forensic work and deliberation, the FAA, NTSB, AAIB and the Malaysian authorities, working separately on the same data, concur.