Hover over image to open it in a larger view.
I created a picture to show a hypothetical MH370 flight path to Perth, Australia and the estimated coverage (detection range) of JORN. This is a follow up to my previous post.
As I said in that post, the Investigators initially stated that the actions on board MH370 were consistent with deliberate action.
The Investigators also insist that MH370 flew south. Because of that, JORN is very relevant to MH370's disappearance.
Look at all of the diagrams where the Investigators show MH370 flying to, then compare that to the range of JORN at Laverton.
If JORN had been active at the time, it would've seen MH370. Presumably Australia would've sent fighter jets to intercept it, after it failed to respond to attempts to contact it over the radio. (I don't think Australia would've ignored it, the way Malaysia did when it flew over their land, but I could be wrong.)
Whoever was in control of MH370 took deliberate actions, including turning off the transponder when MH370 was in an ATC primary radar blind spot (as reported on BBC Two's Horizon programme "Where is Flight MH370?"). Perhaps this same person assumed JORN wouldn't be active (the literature all says that) and used that to his advantage as well.
Regardless of which exact flight path MH370 took, as it headed southeast in the Investigator's diagrams, it would've entered JORN's detection range.
Whoever was in control of MH370 was making every effort to evade detection. Therefore I think it is reasonable to conclude that if MH370 did fly south, the person in control of it relied on JORN not being active during the time that MH370 would be flying southeast. That also means the person took advantage of a weakness in Australia's defense, if MH370 actually did enter JORN's coverage area (even if that reason was because JORN was off at the time). However, Australia has never made a statement about whether or not JORN detected MH370.
Notes:
1) I am not saying MH370 did fly toward Perth for a 9/11 style attack. I am only saying that it was possible. (See my previous post for more details on that topic.)
2) The last flight leg shown in this picture, from Perth to Laverton, was only present to allow me to create a circle with an origin at Laverton, to show its estimated detection range.
I would put money on JORN being switched off in the middle of the night. Also, the ionosphere is different at night and it's possible the algorithms they use are not optimised. But they state it's not a 24 hour service. Presumably it would be if their was a perceived threat.
ReplyDeleteI am not so sure. Here their own statement: http://www.dsto.defence.gov.au/innovation/jindalee-operational-radar-network
ReplyDeleteIt's stated clear that: "The JORN network is Australia’s first comprehensive land and air early warning system. It not only provides a 24-hour military surveillance of the northern and western approaches to Australia, but also serves a civilian purpose in assisting in detecting illegal entry, smuggling and unlicensed fishing."
Besides: to build an expensive 1.8 billions AUD system and not using it by night is stupid. It's not like Jaguar car (this thing you can put in a garage and use rarely to preserve it) it's more like expensive computer or server which you need to use until it becomes old and obsolete (it will be not preserved if you use it or if you don't use it)
About perceived threat: the AAD radars should work 24/7 to see the threat coming, in order to inform HQ, then all other staff can go into action if it necessary: one can switch on targeting radars, call fighters to fly, fire missiles and etc. But the radars should be on before the threat.
Can you imagine Al-Quaeda or Islamic State informing Air Force HQ a day before: "Yeah, we a going to make another 9/11 next night flying from SW." ??
Or Chinese or Russian Air Force calling madly on a radio: "Hallo there, bombers here, in next three hours or more, depending on the wind, we will approach Australia from SW. You can actually switch on JORN now to see us." Funny isn't it?
I am not so sure about it. Do not put money on it because they stated here: "The JORN network is Australia’s first comprehensive land and air early warning system. It not only provides a 24-hour military surveillance of the northern and western approaches to Australia, but also serves a civilian purpose in assisting in detecting illegal entry, smuggling and unlicensed fishing." - See more at: http://www.dsto.defence.gov.au/innovation/jindalee-operational-radar-network#sthash.jHic96Dp.dpuf
ReplyDelete