Hypothetical MH370 flight path to Perth, shot down ~S22E101

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From time to time, I check to see if there are any new developments with MH370.

I saw some recent comments that interested me enough to revisit one of my theories about MH370.

Assuming the "Chillit" MH370 crash site debris location is correct, then I am reasserting my theory that MH370 was shot down as it headed for Perth, Australia.

There is / was a third party scientific ocean search going on coincidentally in the same location where Mike Chillit calculated MH370 crashed.

For the record, I don’t know, nor have I ever communicated with, Mike Chillit nor the third party. This blog post and theory are my own, not his or theirs.

The ocean search coordinates of interest are:

-22.25, 102.09
-22.235, 102.81

Note: He shows the MH370 crash location (pin 7) about half way between those coordinates.

-22.25, 102.09 => -22° 15' 0", 102° 5' 24" (221500S1020524E)
-22.235, 102.81 => -22° 14' 5.9994", 102° 48' 36" (221406S1024836E)

I don’t normally generate a flight path to match the coordinates I’m investigating, but I made an exception in this case, for the following reason. If the "Chillit" MH370 crash location is correct, and my theory that MH370 was shot down while it was flying toward Perth, Australia is also correct, then I needed to determine whether or not the search coordinates were near a standard flight route.

Early in the disappearance, the Investigators implied that MH370 flew by waypoints and that it flew directly south. While I don’t believe everything the Investigators said (see my other blog posts for my reasons why), I incorporated that information into a hypothetical flight path for MH370 flying into Perth, with the goal of avoiding JORN’s detection range for as long as possible, before approaching on a standard flight route. The route also needed to coincide with the suggested MH370 crash site debris location coordinates.

The route that I formulated meets that criteria. (Note: I determined this MH370 flight path independent of what others may have calculated it to be.)

Flight Path to Perth:

WMKK WMKN IGARI BITOD IGARI WMKP NILAM
175154S0955847E MERIB YPPH
Distance: 3685.7 nm

Flight Path to interception (shoot down) location:

WMKK WMKN IGARI BITOD IGARI WMKP NILAM
175154S0955847E 221535S1012341E 221500S1020524E 221406S1024836E
Distance: 2794.5 nm

Note: All GPS coordinates in the interception (shoot down) and debris locations are approximate and based on "Chillit" image data from https://twitter.com/MikeChillit/status/1395091322294489092

Additional notes: 1) The missile impact (shoot down) and debris locations are inside the JORN coverage area. 2) The debris is coincidentally located at almost the same Longitude as Kuala Lumpur International Airport (WMKK).


When I started this blog, I had tried to remain neutral, but as time went on in 2014, it became impossible to withhold my disbelief and skepticism in what the Investigators were claiming.

From the start of MH370’s disappearance, several Governments controlled the narrative about it via News organizations, with both "anonymous leaks" and "on the record" statements by various people.

The most obvious proof that there was an ongoing cover up was when the Government "experts" wasted two months searching an area where they had detected underwater signals that they should have known were outside of the specifications for a Black Box Underwater Locator Beacon (ULB). (See https://mh370research.blogspot.com/2014/06/inmarsats-hotspot-location-bbc-horizon.html)

If MH370’s debris is, in fact, where Mike Chillit calculated it to be, I can guarantee that no one will report that they found it nor that they recovered the black boxes there. Because if they did, at least one Government would have to explain a few things.

But then again, with the same News organizations that never questioned how the "experts" could waste two months pursuing a signal that did not match the specifications for a Black Box Underwater Locator Beacon (ULB) (see https://mh370research.blogspot.com/2014/06/investigators-knew-underwater-signals.html), does anyone actually expect those News organizations to ask any questions now?

Also, never forget that when the "good guys" shoot down a commercial airplane (Iran Air Flight 655, July 3, 1988), it’s an accident, but when the "bad guys" do the exact same thing (MH17, July 17, 2014), it’s intentional. But that also depends on which Government is defining who the "good" and "bad" guys are.

In a post 9/11/2001 world, shooting down a non responsive rogue commercial airplane (MH370) before it reaches one’s land is a valid defensive action to take, yet no one is going to admit to doing that. (I could elaborate further, but I won’t.)

Final note: If you want to communicate with me, please leave your email in a comment, which I won’t publish. (In the past, someone wanted to communicate with me, but they only left their Twitter account information.)

MH370 Hijacked and Landed in Iran

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I now think it is possible that MH370 landed in Iran at Bandar Abbass Airport, after being hijacked, and was hidden inside a hangar there.

I think it is possible that two to five of the passengers on board MH370 were the hijackers.

I recently came to my conclusions about Iran's involvement in MH370 for reasons that I won't disclose, but I did so independently of reports that I had seen at the time of MH370's disappearance, that made the same conclusions:

March 16, 2014 – Times of Israel article that Iran was involved

http://www.timesofisrael.com/ex-el-al-expert-iran-likely-involved-in-mh-370/

April 10, 2014 – Rand Engineering Analysis and Theory that MH370 landed at Bandar Abbas, Iran (OIKB)

https://sites.google.com/site/randmh370/

My hypothetical flight path:

WMKK WMKN IGARI BITOD IGARI WMKP NILAM VOMM AGELA PARAR VAXIM ASLOM MESPO OIKB

I still think MH370 was hijacked (stolen) and landed for use in a future surprise attack against the United States. If the attack occurs, MH370 will be disguised with the duplicated appearance and call sign of an expected international flight, but it will arrive early and it will be carrying a nuclear bomb.

Ironically, but fittingly, I'm making this post about my latest conclusion about MH370 on the anniversary of the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor.

Please see previous blog posts and links about events that occurred during the search for MH370.

MH370 Hijacked, then Shot Down or Landed

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I created this picture to show that if MH370's hijacker wanted to crash MH370 somewhere that it would not be found, he would have avoided the risk of detection by JORN by flying along path C shown in the picture.

MH370 took off from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia at 16:41 UTC, then disappeared from ATC screens approximately 40 minutes later, at ~17:21 UTC, when the hijacker turned off the transponder. Approximately 1 hour and 44 minutes after MH370 had taken off, MH370 initiated a never explained Log-on to the satellite/ground station at 18:25 UTC.

For 1 hour and 44 minutes, the hijacker's well thought out plan was executing flawlessly. After the transponder was turned off, MH370 had crossed through several country's ground radar detection ranges without challenge from any military airforce, all while maintaining a standard cruising altitude and speed. All of the evidence confirms the fact that the acts on board MH370 were deliberate.

Yet despite the initial success of the hijacking, investigators want everyone to believe that sometime after 1 hour and 44 minutes of normal flight, something went wrong. Over time, they have suggested sometimes contradictory explanations for what happened on board MH370:

1) The person (hijacker) in control of MH370 wanted to crash MH370 somewhere that it would not be found (yet flew MH370 into the detection range of JORN).
2) Everyone on board MH370 was unconscious when MH370 turned and headed south (yet MH370 initiated a never explained Log-on to the satellite/ground station at 18:25 UTC).
3) MH370 ran out of fuel and crashed south west of Perth at approximately 00:19 UTC (despite having enough fuel to travel much further than that).

My picture shows the following:

    the known flight path that MH370 took, up to 18:22 UTC
    MH370's estimated maximum range (based on UAE343)
    the MH370 search area
    JORN's coverage area
    the location where the debris was found
    a hypothetical flight path to Karachi, Pakistan
    a hypothetical flight path to Diego Garcia
    a hypothetical flight path to the South Pole
    a hypothetical flight path to Perth, Australia

Timeline of critical events during MH370's flight:

17:07 UTC MH370 ACARS turned off
17:21 UTC MH370 Transponder turned off
18:22 UTC last Malaysian military radar signal of MH370
18:25 UTC MH370 initiated a Log-on to the satellite/ground station
00:19 UTC MH370 initiated a Log-on to the satellite/ground station

Important note: at 18:22 UTC, MH370 was in close proximity to UAE343

I plotted the hypothetical flight plans on SkyVector:

A) WMKK WMKN IGARI BITOD IGARI WMKP NILAM VOMM AGELA PARAR OPKC
B) WMKK WMKN IGARI BITOD IGARI WMKP NILAM KADAP FJDG
C) WMKK WMKN IGARI BITOD IGARI WMKP NILAM VIROT SCRM
D) WMKK WMKN IGARI BITOD IGARI WMKP NILAM VIROT YPPH

A) Shadows UAE343 then lands in Pakistan and is hidden in hangar
B) Flies toward Diego Garcia and is shot down
C) Flies toward South Pole, avoiding JORN, runs out of fuel and crashes in the ocean
D) Flies toward Perth and is shot down

I have several questions about MH370 that I have never seen answered by any investigative journalist:

1) Was JORN on or off?
2) Why would MH370 run out of fuel in the search area, when its maximum range was further than that?
3) If the hijacker wanted to crash MH370 somewhere that it would not be found, why did he risk detection by JORN, instead of flying along path C?
4) Why did the MH370 searchers waste 8 weeks investigating underwater signals they detected that they knew, at the time they detected them, were outside of the specifications for an Underwater Locator Beacon (ULB)?
5) Why did Inmarsat withhold MH370's initial Log-on Messages?

Concluding Comments:

1) While I am saying that the actions on board MH370 were deliberate, I am not making any allegations about who the hijacker was. Although the pilot radioed ATC just before the transponder was turned off, that does not make him the hijacker, because he could have been under duress, obeying orders from a hijacker.
2) In my opinion, if the hijacker wanted to crash MH370 somewhere that it would not be found, he would have flown it along path C. Because he did not do that, there are only two other possibilities of where he was flying MH370:
     to a destination where he could land it and hide it inside a hangar
     to a destination for a 9/11 style attack

Please see previous blog posts and links about events that occurred during the search for MH370.

Hypothetical MH370 Flight Path to Perth or Diego Garcia

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 As a result of the discovery of debris from MH370 that was found on Reunion Island (near Madagascar), on the beach at Saint-Andre, on Wednesday, July 29, 2015, I created a picture that shows the following:

• the known flight path that MH370 took, up to 18:22 UTC
• MH370's estimated maximum range (based on UAE343)
• the MH370 search area
• JORN's coverage area
• the location where the debris was found
• a hypothetical flight path to Perth, Australia
• a hypothetical flight path to Diego Garcia

Timeline of critical events during MH370's flight:

17:07 UTC MH370 ACARS turned off
17:21 UTC MH370 Transponder turned off
18:22 UTC last Malaysian military radar signal of MH370
18:25 UTC MH370 initiated a Log-on to the satellite/ground station

I plotted the hypothetical flight plans on SkyVector:

Flight Path to Perth:
WMKK WMKN IGARI BITOD IGARI WMKP NILAM VIROT YPPH

Flight Path to Diego Garcia:
WMKK WMKN IGARI BITOD IGARI WMKP NILAM KADAP FJDG

I have several questions about MH370 that I have never seen answered by any investigative journalist:

1) If MH370 crashed in the search area, why didn't JORN detect it?
2) Why did the MH370 searchers waste 8 weeks investigating underwater signals they detected that they knew, at the time they detected them, were outside of the specifications for an Underwater Locator Beacon (ULB)?
3) Why did Inmarsat withhold MH370's initial Log-on Messages?

Please see previous blog posts and links about events that occurred during the search for MH370.

MH370 debris found on Reunion Island (near Madagascar)

My theory about MH370 landing safely in Pakistan was wrong.

Debris from MH370 was found on Reunion Island (near Madagascar), on the beach at Saint-Andre, on Wednesday, July 29, 2015.

I still believe MH370 was hijacked by person(s) unknown.

MH370 Destroyed June 8, 2014 Inside Ispahani Hangar (Jinnah International Airport, Karachi, Pakistan) by US Special Forces

Within a few days of the disappearance of MH370, I concluded that the Boeing 777 had been stolen, landed, and hidden inside a hangar, for reuse in a future terrorist attack. The plane was stolen and hidden so that it could be repainted and retrofitted to carry a deadly payload on a long range mission that would dwarf the severity of the 9/11 attack. I also concluded that the United States Government would destroy the plane in a covert Special Forces operation if it determined where the plane was hidden.

If MH370 had been stolen, the US Government (and its allies) would do the following:

Step 1) Conceal that fact from the world with disinformation (for "national security reasons")
Step 2) Mislead the unknown perpetrators by intentionally focusing their public search for MH370 in the wrong direction
Step 3) Use "delay tactics" (by extending the time of the search for MH370) to give themselves more time to discover who had stolen MH370 and where it had landed
Step 4) Plan and execute a covert mission to destroy MH370 once they determined the location of it
Step 5) Continue the public facade (for "national security reasons") of searching for MH370 and eventually end the search without ever finding MH370

March 8, 2014:

The actions onboard MH370 were deliberate, and its last known location, at 18:22 UTC, was in close proximity to UAE343. Both planes were flying Northwest. (Please see previous blog posts and links about all of the events I'm describing in this post, because I'm only going to summarize them here.)

March 13, 2014:

"unnamed US officials" started leaking information to the media, stating that MH370 flew South into the Indian Ocean.

That was Step 2: They knew MH370 shadowed UAE343 and flew Northwest, but they wanted to mislead the perpetrators into believing they thought the plane flew South.

April 5, 2014:

The Ocean Shield detected underwater signals that investigators intentionally falsely stated were "consistent with those emitted by aircraft black boxes" (when in fact, they were not) and spent the next eight weeks searching that area before stating on May 28, 2014 that the underwater pings were not from MH370's black boxes.

That was Step 3: They used "delay tactics" by waiting to "discover" the black box signals just before the 30 day battery life was about to expire, then gained another 8 weeks of time "looking" for those signals.

May 28, 2014:

Investigators said the search for MH370 would be postponed for at least two months.

That was Step 2 again: mislead the perpetrators with the additional intention of getting the perpetrators to drop their guard. (The search is "off" for awhile, and they are still searching in the wrong place, so the perpetrators have no reason to fear discovery.)

June 8, 2014:

Less than two weeks after that announcement, and three months after MH370 went missing, US Special Forces conducted a covert attack on the Ispahani Hangar at Jinnah International Airport in Karachi, Pakistan, where MH370 was hidden.

That was Step 4: They destroyed the airplane and killed the Pakistanis who were guarding it/working on it.

Any news reports about what occurred during that attack was disinformation from the Pakistani Government, including the claim that, "Karachi airport attackers were disguised as security workers." The dead were in fact security workers, but they were killed by US Special Forces.

Tellingly, "The gunmen had targeted Terminal 1, the old terminal that had fallen out of regular use. ...it is largely vacant." Terminal 1 is the location of the Ispahani Hangar, "which is used for wide-body aircraft maintenance," and, "where the thick black smoke plumed up." "Police said one gunman detonated a suicide vest after being cornered in one of the hangars that contained fuel."

Concluding remarks:

From almost the beginning of MH370's disappearance, I suspected it had landed in Pakistan. When the attack occurred at Jinnah International Airport, it resembled exactly what I expected would happen during a Special Forces raid to destroy MH370, but then the media reports made me second guess myself. At the beginning of November, when I heard Australia was working toward having MH370 declared officially lost, I knew all of my original suspicions were right.

If you're wondering why a country would go to all of the trouble of stealing a plane, when they have planes of their own they could use, the analogy is this: if one is planning to rob a bank, one steals a car to use, instead of using one's own car, so that the car used can't be traced back to oneself. If one is planning to fly an airplane carrying a deadly payload (chemical, biological, or nuclear bomb) into a country, one isn't going to use one's own plane (which would then be unaccounted for after the attack).

If you're wondering why Pakistan would plot and carry out the type of terrorist attack I'm suggesting, Pakistan harbored Osama bin Laden for nine years after the 9/11 attack. For that reason, and because of other acts committed by them over time, I think they are a false ally of the United States/West.

When MH370 took off from Kuala Lumpur on March 8, 2014, at least one person on board intended for it to land in Pakistan. All of the passengers were either killed during the flight or were killed after it landed. The collaborator(s) onboard was killed after MH370 was secured within the hangar in Pakistan. (Dead men tell no tales, and no one who was onboard could ever be seen alive again, to guarantee the secrecy of the second part of this terrorist plot.)

MH370 was a Boeing 777, which meant it could be used as a long range bomber. The target of the planned attack was most likely Washington, DC, but also possibly New York City. On the date of the planned attack, MH370 would have arrived in United States airspace using the same transponder code (and painted with the same airline logo) as a legitimately expected Boeing 777 international flight, but MH370 would have arrived early. If the legitimate airplane with the same transponder code came into range of the US before MH370 landed, MH370 still would have gotten closer to US soil, before fighter jets were scrambled to intercept it, and there would have been confusion because of two Boeing 777s with the same transponder code. An international flight carrying a nuclear bomb only needed to get "close" before detonating, so whether or not MH370 succeeded in landing, the detonation would have caused significant death and destruction.

Final Comment:

If you're one of those "tin foil hat/nut job" accusers, move on. The United States CIA thanks you for being a part of their discredit/smear/propaganda/collaborator arm, which the US Senate's CIA Torture Report documented is one of the CIA's standard tactics. (From the news: "Craig Murray, British ambassador to Uzbekistan from 2002-2004, was fired when he revealed CIA rendition practices in Poland and Uzbekistan to UK leaders – and was branded a liar.")

None of the countries I mentioned are going to admit the truth, for both political and national security reasons. In fifty years or so, maybe the US will declassify their documents about MH370, and then the truth will be known.

Hypothetical MH370 Flight Path to Shahbaz Air Base in Jacobabad, Pakistan (ICAO code: OPJA)

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I created a picture to show a hypothetical flight path to Shahbaz Air Base in Jacobabad, Pakistan (ICAO code: OPJA), that MH370 might have flown.

As I have stated in previous posts, MH370 and UAE343 were near each other at 18:22 UTC. Therefore MH370 would have been able to travel the same approximate distance as UAE343 had by 00:19 UTC. (UAE343 was near its destination of Dubai International Airport in the United Arab Emirates at that time.)

My hypothetical flight path assumes the following:

1) MH370 shadowed UAE343 in order to fly through India's airspace without being detected by India's primary radars.
2) Once MH370 was beyond India's primary radar detection range, it broke formation with UAE343 at waypoint BRAVO and flew to Shahbaz Air Base in Jacobabad, Pakistan.
3) United States troops are no longer stationed at Shahbaz Air Base in Jacobabad, Pakistan.
4) Inmarsat's Arc Timing Rings are incorrect (either intentionally or due to error).

I used the following requirements criteria to select possible military airports where MH370 could've landed by the time of the last satellite communication at 00:19 UTC (MH370 Log-On Request to satellite):

1) Airport must have a runway that is long enough for a Boeing 777 to land and take off from.
2) Airport must have a hangar inside of which MH370 could've been hidden.

I used this site to find military airports in Pakistan, then looked at satellite views of them, to see if they had hangars.

Shahbaz Air Base matched all of the criteria.

I eliminated the following airports as being too far to reach, because I used a conservative estimate for the distance that MH370 could have traveled from waypoint BRAVO to a landing location in Pakistan:

Chandhar Air Base (32°04'40"N 73°47'25"E)
Murid Air Base (32°54'34"N 72°46'29"E)
Dhamial Army, Qasim (OPQS)
Shorkot Road Air Base, Rafiqui (OPRQ)
Sargodha Air Base, (OPSR)

The Investigators (Malaysia, Australia, UK, US) involved in the search for MH370 have described the actions on board MH370 as being deliberate, however, the Investigators' actions have been deliberate as well:

1) On March 13, the Investigators leaked to the press the idea that MH370 had crashed in the Indian Ocean. Yet it wasn't until the Black Box ULB batteries were within days of their 30 day expiration point that they began attempting to detect underwater signals from them.
2) Prior to commencing the search for underwater signals, Inmarsat had already identified a "hotspot" location where their analysis showed that MH370 had crashed, yet the Investigators didn't send their ships to that location.
3) On April 5, the Investigators detected underwater signals that at the time their own "analyses determined" "were not consistent with" a ULB signal, yet they intentionally spent 8 weeks investigating them.
4) On May 27, the Investigators released Inmarsat's MH370 Data Communication Logs file, yet they intentionally withheld MH370's initial Log-on Request with the satellite (and subsequent messages) from that file.

Based on those four facts, it appears to me that the Investigators are intentionally providing misinformation to the public. There could be several reasons for them doing that.

This post about a hypothetical landing at a military base in Pakistan is based on the following considerations:

1) The actions on board MH370 were deliberate.
2) MH370 lined up very close to UAE343 at 18:22 UTC.
3) Osama bin Laden lived in Pakistan for 9 years until US Special Forces killed him on May 02, 2011.
4) A stolen Boeing 777 can be loaded with a deadly payload, flown to a target, and detonated, with no traceability back to the country that initiated the attack.

Notes:
1) I am not saying MH370 did land in Pakistan. I am only saying that it was possible.

Flight Path:

WMKK WMKN IGARI BITOD IGARI WMKC WMKP
N6.66E95.94 N14.3E80.25 N16.51E75 N17.82E72.75 N18.92E70.6 BRAVO OPJA

That flight plan and average speed of 470 kts can be plotted on SkyVector.

Approximate UTC times and locations for UAE343 from FlightRadar24:

18:28 N6.66E95.94    MH370 in close proximity of UAE343
20:40 N14.3E80.25    UAE343 enters India
21:27 N16.51E75      UAE343 makes slight NW turn
21:43 N17.82E72.75   UAE343 exits India
22:08 N18.92E70.6    UAE343 goes out of range
23:41 N23.88E59.28   UAE343 flying
00:25 OMDB           UAE343 lands

Investigators knew underwater signals invalid, yet they chose to waste 8 weeks investigating them

The MH370 Search Areas Report dated June 26, 2014 proves the fact that the Investigators knew the underwater signals detected by Ocean Shield were invalid, yet they chose to waste 8 weeks investigating them.

It is also a fact that prior to the detection of those underwater signals, the Investigators leading the search for MH370 already knew Inmarsat's "hotspot" location for MH370. 

From the June 26 report:

The flight recorders fitted to 9M-MRO were equipped with Dukane DK100 underwater acoustic beacons that activate on immersion in salt or fresh water. The beacons had the following characteristics:
- Operating frequency: 37.5 ± 1 kHz
- Pulse Length: 10 ms
- Repetition rate: 1 pulse per second
- Operating life following immersion: minimum 30 days

The ADV-OS deployed the first towfish on 4 April 2014. The first towfish exhibited acoustic noise and was required to be changed out with the second towfish. The second towfish was deployed on 5 April 2014 and shortly after, whilst descending, detected an acoustic signal at a frequency of approximately 33 kHz. Further detections were made on 5 April 2014 and on 8 April; however, none were able to be repeated when following an opposing track. The first towfish was redeployed with no detections.

A review of the Ocean Shield acoustic signals was undertaken independently by various specialists. The analyses determined that the signals recorded were not consistent with the nominal performance standards of the Dukane DK100 underwater acoustic beacon. The analyses also noted that whilst unlikely, the acoustic signals could be consistent with a damaged ULB. However, it was decided that that an ocean floor sonar search should be performed to fully investigate the detections.

Hypothetical MH370 flight path to Perth, Australia via Cocos Keeling Island

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I created a picture to show a hypothetical flight path to Perth, Australia, via Cocos Keeling Island, that MH370 might have flown. This should be my last follow up to my posts here and here.

The Investigators insist MH370 could only have flown south. Their diagrams show MH370 flying close to Cocos Keeling Island and then continuing southeast after that. But with no explanation whatsoever, they use extremely slow estimated speeds for MH370, ranging from 325 kts to 350 kts.

Coincidentally, those slow speeds prevent MH370 from reaching the outer detection range of JORN until close to the time of MH370's final communications with the Inmarsat satellite.

However, MH370 and UAE343 were near each other at 18:22 UTC. Therefore MH370 would have been able to travel the same approximate distance as UAE343 had by 00:19 UTC. (UAE343 was near its destination of Dubai International Airport in the United Arab Emirates at that time.)

The only way MH370 could've gotten from its last known transponder location near IGARI/BITOD at 17:21 UTC to WMPK (Penang/Butterworth) and then to VAMPI/MEKAR by 18:22 UTC, which is the path Investigators say it flew, is if it was flying at a minimum speed of approximately 470 kts.

So why would whoever was in control of MH370 suddenly decide to start flying at a slower speed, as the Investigators claim?

And how did whoever was in control of MH370 keep the rest of the passengers and crew subdued during this more than 6 hour flight diversion?

If MH370 did fly south, which one of these stories is more plausible, knowing that the person in control of MH370 took deliberate actions to evade detection while MH370 was flying:

1) The person in control of MH370 flew south to the middle of nowhere to commit suicide, rather than doing a nose dive immediately in the location where the transponder went off.
2) The person in control of MH370 flew south to the middle of nowhere to land on the runway of a remote island.
3) The person in control of MH370 flew south to commit a 9/11 style attack on Australia, which was reachable.

Notes:
1) I am not saying MH370 did fly toward Perth for a 9/11 style attack. I am only saying that it was possible. (See my previous posts for more details on that topic.)
2) Australia has never said whether or not JORN detected MH370.
3) I used the following to plot the course shown in the picture:

Flight Path:
WMKK WMKN IGARI BITOD IGARI WMCK WMKP VAMPI
MEKAR NILAM VIROT UPROB YPCC MERIB YPPH

That flight plan and speed can be plotted on SkyVector.

Approximate times based on 470 kts:

MEKAR 18:22 UTC
NILAM 18:26 UTC
VIROT 18:38 UTC
UPROB 19:16 UTC
YPCC  20:58 UTC (Cocos-Keeling Island)
MERIB 23:55 UTC
YPPH  00:21 UTC (Perth)

JORN's detection range and MH370

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I created a picture to show a hypothetical MH370 flight path to Perth, Australia and the estimated coverage (detection range) of JORN. This is a follow up to my previous post.

As I said in that post, the Investigators initially stated that the actions on board MH370 were consistent with deliberate action.

The Investigators also insist that MH370 flew south. Because of that, JORN is very relevant to MH370's disappearance.

Look at all of the diagrams where the Investigators show MH370 flying to, then compare that to the range of JORN at Laverton.

If JORN had been active at the time, it would've seen MH370. Presumably Australia would've sent fighter jets to intercept it, after it failed to respond to attempts to contact it over the radio. (I don't think Australia would've ignored it, the way Malaysia did when it flew over their land, but I could be wrong.)

Whoever was in control of MH370 took deliberate actions, including turning off the transponder when MH370 was in an ATC primary radar blind spot (as reported on BBC Two's Horizon programme "Where is Flight MH370?"). Perhaps this same person assumed JORN wouldn't be active (the literature all says that) and used that to his advantage as well.

Regardless of which exact flight path MH370 took, as it headed southeast in the Investigator's diagrams, it would've entered JORN's detection range.

Whoever was in control of MH370 was making every effort to evade detection. Therefore I think it is reasonable to conclude that if MH370 did fly south, the person in control of it relied on JORN not being active during the time that MH370 would be flying southeast. That also means the person took advantage of a weakness in Australia's defense, if MH370 actually did enter JORN's coverage area (even if that reason was because JORN was off at the time). However, Australia has never made a statement about whether or not JORN detected MH370.

Notes:
1) I am not saying MH370 did fly toward Perth for a 9/11 style attack. I am only saying that it was possible. (See my previous post for more details on that topic.)
2) The last flight leg shown in this picture, from Perth to Laverton, was only present to allow me to create a circle with an origin at Laverton, to show its estimated detection range.

JORN and MH370's possible flight path for a 9/11 style attack on Perth, Australia

Hover over image to open it in a larger view.

Based on the fact that the Investigators initially stated that the actions on board MH370 were consistent with deliberate action, and based on the fact that the Investigators insist MH370 could only have flown South, I decided to determine if Perth, Australia could be reached, within the time that the Investigators have said MH370 was communicating with the Inmarsat satellite/ground station, for a possible 9/11 style attack on Perth. It could.

I am not saying MH370 did fly toward Perth for a 9/11 style attack. I am only saying that it was possible, using these flight waypoints:

WMKK WMKN IGARI BITOD IGARI WMCK WMKP VAMPI MEKAR NILAM VIROT UPROB MERIB YPPH

Using a conservative estimate of 470 kts for that entire path, MH370 would've reached Perth in 7 hours and 34.5 minutes. That time is less than the 7 hours and 38 minutes that the Investigators say MH370 communicated with the Inmarsat satellite/ground station for, from its takeoff at 16:41 UTC to its final Log-on at 00:19 UTC.

That flight plan and speed can be plotted on SkyVector.

The deliberate actions on MH370 included relying on the fact that in the location where the transponder went off, MH370 was in an ATC primary radar blind spot (as reported on BBC Two's Horizon programme "Where is Flight MH370?"). If the final destination was Perth, the deliberate actions also appear to have relied on JORN not being active as MH370 approached. (Note that I prefaced that statement with "If".)

Australia has never made a statement about whether or not JORN, which has an operating range of 1000–3000km, detected MH370. However, if JORN's Laverton OTHR system, which has a coverage area that extends through 180 degrees, didn't detect MH370, it reveals a weakness in Australia's defense.


Initial news reports about deliberate action:

On March 13, ABC News reported that unnamed US officials told them the actions on board MH370 were deliberate.

On March 15, Malaysian prime minister Najib Razak confirmed those unnamed US officials' statements:

Early this morning I was briefed by the investigation team – which includes the FAA [US Federal Aviation Administration], NTSB [US National Transportation Safety Board], the AAIB [Uk Air Accidents Investigation Branch], the Malaysian authorities and the acting minister of transport – on new information that sheds further light on what happened to MH370.

Based on new satellite information, we can say with a high degree of certainty that the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) was disabled just before the aircraft reached the East coast of peninsular Malaysia. Shortly afterwards, near the border between Malaysian and Vietnamese air traffic control, the aircraft’s transponder was switched off.

From this point onwards, the Royal Malaysian Air Force primary radar showed that an aircraft which was believed – but not confirmed – to be MH370 did indeed turn back. It then flew in a westerly direction back over peninsular Malaysia before turning northwest. Up until the point at which it left military primary radar coverage, these movements are consistent with deliberate action by someone on the plane.

Today, based on raw satellite data that was obtained from the satellite data service provider, we can confirm that the aircraft shown in the primary radar data was flight MH370. After much forensic work and deliberation, the FAA, NTSB, AAIB and the Malaysian authorities, working separately on the same data, concur.

Inmarsat's "hotspot" location known prior to detection of underwater pings (BBC Horizon programme)

Chris Ashton, Inmarsat

Chris Moore, Phoenix International

Hover over images to open them in a larger view.

The BBC Two's Horizon programme "Where is Flight MH370?" revealed the fact that prior to the Ocean Shield detecting any underwater pings, the Investigators leading the search for MH370 already knew Inmarsat's "hotspot" location for MH370, and Inmarsat themselves expected Ocean Shield to go to that hotspot location to listen for pings from MH370's black boxes.

But that isn't what happened.

Instead, Ocean Shield spent 2 months searching an area where they had detected four underwater signals that were outside of the specifications of a black box Underwater Locator Beacon (ULB).

The programme also documented the fact that the experts on the Ocean Shield were aware that false detections were possible, because it had happened with HMS Echo.

Yet the Investigators expect everyone to believe that they didn't realize the four underwater signals detected by Ocean Shield weren't valid until 8 weeks later.

That is implausible.

The Investigators had absolute confidence in Inmarsat's analysis, so when the team detected signals that weren't in Inmarsat's "hotspot" location, why wouldn't they verify them?

The experts onboard Ocean Shield knew HMS Echo had detected an invalid signal, so for that reason alone, why wouldn't they verify the signals they detected?

And despite Chris Moore, of Phoenix International, stating during the programme that they did verify the signals, the Investigators didn't announce that the signals weren't valid until 8 weeks later.


The following is my transcript of statements made by Chris Ashton of Inmarsat, and Chris Moore of Phoenix International, during the BBC Two's Horizon programme "Where is Flight MH370?" which aired on June 17, 2014. The youtube video for the programme is here.

Starting at 43:43 Chris Ashton of Inmarsat said, "We can identify a path that matches exactly with all those frequency measurements and with the timing measurements and lands on the final arc at a particular location, which then gives us a sort of a hotspot area on the final arc where we believe the most likely area is."

Starting at 45:01 Chris Moore, of Phoenix International, who had been on Ocean Shield, said, "HMS Echo believed they had detected a 37 and a half kilohertz pulse in the water so we headed to that area and came up with a search plan."

Starting at 47:28 Chris Moore said, "During that survey leg HMS Echo was able to deduce that the 37 and a half kilohertz pings they were hearing were, uh, not valid."

Starting at 47:46 Chris Moore said, "At that point we regrouped and went back to our best known last position, being the, uh, eight minute arc, and our intention was to work our way south. South was determined to have a higher probability, a more probable, uh, flight path."

Note: The "eight minute arc" refers to time 00:19 UTC, when MH370 sent a Log-on message to the satellite/ground station, the satellite/ground station sent several messages back to MH370, and then MH370 sent an Acknowledge back to the satellite/ground station.

Starting at 48:33 Chris Moore said, "It's theorized to have been that the plane was going down. Low on fuel. It did a roll. When the plane rolled the fuel then uh the engine was able to restart and part of the startup sequence was initializing this, this handshake with the Inmarsat. And it was a incomplete handshake. So we're working on the premise that perhaps this last handshake is where the plane was in its final stages."

Starting at 55:25 Chris Moore said, "And we had a detection. Big moment. Uh, are you sure that's what we heard? Are you sure that's what we're, is it not us? Uh, you know. It was elation and panic, and self doubt. Um, wonderment to let's get busy and find this thing. Let's track it down."

Starting at 56:15 Chris Ashton said, "My thoughts were they were probably going to traverse down the final arc to go over our hotspot area. But of course they, they found their, their ping detection fairly early on."

Starting at 56:35 Chris Moore said, "The decision was made, uh, we had enough detections, and it was time to shift over to the AUV ops."

Starting at 57:39 Chris Aston said, "It was by no means, um, an unrealistic location but it was further to the north east than our area of highest probability."

MH370 climbed to 45,000 feet (March 14 news report)

On March 13, unnamed US officials told ABC News this:

    Two U.S. officials tell ABC News the U.S. believes that the shutdown of two communication systems happened separately on Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. One source said this indicates the plane did not come out of the sky because of a catastrophic failure.

    The data reporting system, they believe, was shut down at 1:07 a.m. The transponder -- which transmits location and altitude -- shut down at 1:21 a.m. 

    U.S. officials said earlier that they have an "indication" the missing Malaysia Airlines jetliner may have crashed in the Indian Ocean and is moving the USS Kidd to the area to begin searching.

On March 14 (first published Inmarsat Arc diagram?), unnamed US officials told the New York Times this:

    SEPANG, Malaysia — Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 experienced significant changes in altitude after it lost contact with ground control, and altered its course more than once as if still under the command of a pilot, American officials and others familiar with the investigation said Friday.

    Radar signals recorded by the Malaysian military appeared to show that the missing airliner climbed to 45,000 feet, above the approved altitude limit for a Boeing 777-200, soon after it disappeared from civilian radar and turned sharply to the west, according to a preliminary assessment by a person familiar with the data.

    The radar track, which the Malaysian government has not released but says it has provided to the United States and China, showed that the plane then descended unevenly to 23,000 feet, below normal cruising levels, as it approached the densely populated island of Penang.

    There, officials believe, the plane turned from a southwest-bound course, climbed to a higher altitude and flew northwest over the Strait of Malacca toward the Indian Ocean.

    But the Malaysian military radar data, which local authorities have declined to provide to the public, added significant information about the flight immediately after ground controllers lost contact with it. The combination of altitude changes and at least two significant course corrections could have a variety of explanations, including that a pilot or a hijacker diverted the plane, or that it flew unevenly without a pilot after the crew became disabled.

Chris Moore says Ocean Shield team verified underwater pings (BBC Horizon programme)

Hover over images to open them in a larger view.

I captured screen images from BBC Two's Horizon programme "Where is Flight MH370?" that show Chris Moore, of Phoenix International, who stated the following, starting at approximately 55:25 into the video:

Chris Moore:
"And we had a detection. Big moment. Uh, are you sure that's what we heard? Are you sure that's what we're, is it not us? Uh, you know. It was elation and panic, and self doubt. Um, wonderment to let's get busy and find this thing. Let's track it down."

Clearly, based on his statements, the Ocean Shield team verified the signal they detected, to make sure it was not them, and to make sure that it was within the specifications for a Black Box Underwater Locator Beacon (ULB). Clearly they did not simply assume the signal was valid.

Yet as we know, none of the four underwater signals they detected were valid, and they were not within the specifications for a ULB.

So if they verified the underwater signals when they first detected them, which he stated that they did, can one conclude that they ignored the fact that they weren't valid?

What other conclusion can one draw, when the Horizon programme described the team as follows, starting at approximately 44:19 into the video:

At the forefront of the search, was the Ocean Shield. A six and a half thousand ton Australian Navy support vessel, carrying an elite team of deep ocean salvage experts.

The  Youtube video for the programme is here. (Let's see how long it remains there, before the BBC demands its removal.)

Inmarsat's "hotspot" location (BBC Horizon programme)

Hover over images to open them in a larger view.

I captured screen images from BBC Two's Horizon programme "Where is Flight MH370?" that show the location where Inmarsat's analysis indicates MH370 crashed in the Indian Ocean.

During the programme, Inmarsat stated:

"We can identify a path that matches exactly with all those frequency measurements and with the timing measurements and lands on the final arc at a particular location, which then gives us a sort of a hotspot area on the final arc where we believe the most likely area is," explained (Chris) Ashton.
(Transcript Source: The Guardian)

The programme itself stated:

"Horizon understands Inmarsat's hotspot on the final arc is around 28 degrees south. It is an area yet to be searched."

Yet despite Inmarsat's certainty of their precise final location of MH370, and despite all of the Investigators hailing Inmarsat's analysis as accurate and verified, not only did the Investigators not go to that location to listen for the Black Box underwater pings, the JACC has now postponed the release of their new search zone definition from mid-June to the end of June.

Why is the JACC delaying releasing their new search zone definition, when Inmarsat knows the precise location of MH370, and knew that location prior to taping the Horizon programme?

The Horizon programme itself was misleading, in that it referred to "7 Handshake signals", and defined a "Handshake" as being a signal that was initiated by the satellite/ground station and sent to MH370.

At 18:25 UTC, MH370 initiated a Log-on to the satellite/ground station.

The Horizon programme failed to point out that the 18:25 UTC message was initiated by MH370, not the satellite/ground station, and they didn't provide any explanation for that message.

Note that the last military radar detection of MH370 was at 18:22 UTC. MH370 stopped communicating with the satellite/ground station at 17:07 UTC, but then it initiated a Log-on to the satellite/ground station three minutes after it was no longer within the military radar's range. This is also the same time that MH370 was within close proximity of UAE343. The Horizon programme never mentioned that fact, either.

At 00:19 UTC, MH370 initiated a Log-on to the satellite/ground station.

The Horizon programme described the 00:19 UTC message as a "partial Handshake" that some Investigators have theorized was due to the plane rolling (banking) and fuel restarting the engines, which caused the "startup sequence" on MH370. They also described the message as an "incomplete handshake" despite the fact that MH370 initiated the Log-on and subsequently sent a Log-on/Log-off Acknowledge. While additional messages might have been expected after the Acknowledge, to describe the sequence of messages at 00:19 UTC as "incomplete" is misleading.

On March 13, the US Government was certain MH370 had crashed in the Indian Ocean. They never even mentioned the possibility of MH370 having flown on the "northern arc" path.

White House spokesman Jay Carney said, “It's my understanding that based on some new information that's not necessarily conclusive, but new information, an additional search area may be opened in the Indian Ocean, and we are consulting with international partners about the appropriate assets to deploy.”

The Horizon programme showed a news clip of Jay Carney, and Inmarsat said the information the US Government was referring to had come from them.

So on March 13, the US, the UK, and Australia knew, with certainty, that MH370 could only be in the Indian Ocean, at the location identified by Inmarsat, yet that location still has not been searched. And they wasted two months searching an area where they had detected underwater signals that they should have known were outside of the specifications for a Black Box Underwater Locator Beacon (ULB). And that delay brought them closer to Winter in the southern hemisphere, when the ocean would be too harsh to search, allowing them to postpone the search for several months.

I have tried to remain neutral in my blog posts, but as time goes by, it gets harder to withhold my disbelief and skepticism in what the Investigators claim.

MH370's final location could be near S35.672 E92 (if one believes the Investigators)

Hover over image to open it in a larger view.

I used Inmarsat's 7th Arc image to estimate that the radius of their circle was 2629.4 nmi (nautical miles).

I now estimate that the intersection of the due south flight path is near S35.672 E92, if one believes the Investigators. This latest image is an update to my original post on this topic, which can be read here.

Inmarsat has stated:
"We can identify a path that matches exactly with all those frequency measurements and with the timing measurements and lands on the final arc at a particular location, which then gives us a sort of a hotspot area on the final arc where we believe the most likely area is," explained (Chris) Ashton. (Source: The Guardian)

Yet despite Inmarsat's certainty of their precise final location of MH370, and despite all of the Investigators hailing Inmarsat's analysis as accurate and verified, the Investigators didn't go to that location. Instead, the Investigators chose to waste 8 weeks searching an area where they detected underwater pings that were outside of the specification for a Black Box. Being the experts, they would've known immediately that those signals weren't from MH370.

China determined that the underwater signal that they had detected wasn't from MH370, within a day or so. So how is it Australia failed to do the same with the signals they detected?

Note: I am only posting this to update my original estimate of where MH370's final location might be, based on what the Investigators have stated as facts in this case, and based on my estimate of the Inmarsat 7th Arc Timing Ring. At this point, for me, there are too many discrepancies for me to believe the Investigators.

Why did Inmarsat withhold MH370's initial Log-on Messages?

The first message in the Inmarsat MH370 Data Communications Logs file is at 16:00:13.406 UTC and is a 0x15 - Log-on/Log-off Acknowledge message from MH370 to the Ground Earth Station (GES).

Where is the initial 0x10 - Log-on Request (ISU)/Log-on Flight Information (SSU) message from MH370 to the GES, and all subsequent messages that occurred prior to that 0x15 - Log-on/Log-off Acknowledge message?

As can be seen at 18:25:27.421 UTC and 00:19:29.416 UTC, MH370, which is an Aircraft Earth Station (AES), initiates a Log-on to the GES with a 0x10 - Log-on message, which is responded to with a 0x11 - Log-on Confirm message from the GES to the AES, followed by an exchange of messages between them, prior to the 0x15 - Acknowledge message.

Why did Inmarsat withhold MH370's initial Log-on Messages?

And why isn't any news organization asking that question?

MH370's final location could be near S32 E92 (if the Investigators' assertions are correct)

Hover over image to open it in a larger view.

If the Inmarsat Timing Rings are accurate, and if the Investigators' implication that MH370 flew by waypoints is true, and if the Investigators' insistence that MH370 could only have flown South is correct, then MH370's final location could be near S32 E92, assuming it flew due South after reaching waypoint KETIV.

I estimated the radii of the Inmarsat Timing Rings, then looked for any airplane that might have a correlation with the circle at 22:41 UTC.

SIA352 correlated with their 19:41, 21:41, and 22:41 UTC circles, flying North. I plotted SIA352's distances to the satellite, then mirror flipped and rotated those distances, to estimate where MH370 would be, heading South.

I made the further assumption that if MH370 flew South, as the Investigators insist, and if MH370 flew along waypoints, then I assumed it flew along these waypoints (to avoid land):

VAMPI MEKAR NILAM VIROT NIXUL KETIV S32E92

(I added S70E92 to extend the path down to the South Pole.)

That path correlated with the estimated 18:22 UTC radius, and the 21:41 and 22:41 UTC radii (in the Southern direction).

The 00:11 UTC circle (and 00:19 UTC circle, which isn't shown) intersect with the due South flight path near S32 E92.

Note: I am not saying this is in fact where MH370 is. I am presenting this as one possibility, based on what the Investigators have stated as facts in this case, and based on my estimates of the Inmarsat Timing Rings. Inmarsat has failed to provide the radii of their circles.

Inmarsat log file message data at 17:07:34 UTC

Hover over image to open it in a larger view.

Originally, I thought I had found an anomaly in the Inmarsat MH370 Data Communication Logs file that was released, at time 17:07:34 UTC.

But upon further examination of the surrounding data, I think I can explain the anomaly and disregard it.

In my Method of calculating MH370's distance from satellite post, I showed a diagram and formulas for how to calculate MH370's distance from the Inmarsat 3F1 satellite.

I extracted only the following message types from the original data file, and only for cases where these messages were one after the other (i.e. no other messages occurred between them):

0x22 - Access Request (R/T-Channel)
0x51 - T-Channel Assignment

At 17:07:34 UTC, the delta time between the messages was 0.020 seconds less than it was for all previous messages of this same type. The delta time was also less than the minimum calculated round trip time.

The minimum calculated round trip time is based on MH370's known Slant Range to the satellite and the Perth GES 305's known Slant Range to the satellite at 17:07:34. But, the 0x62 message before the 0x22 message took 0.020 seconds longer than previous ones, so that might explain this time anomaly.

I was originally going to include all of the data from my calculations in this post, but because I no longer believe there is anything of interest with this data point at 17:07:34 UTC, the anomaly issue is now moot.

I made this blog post for completeness, because I had mentioned this on The Guardian.

Method of calculating MH370's distance from satellite

Hover over image to open it in a larger view.

This is the basis for the preliminary analysis I am currently doing:

"Slant Range to target is measured by round trip delay in the received echo. It is the speed of light multiplied by the time delay and divided by two to account for the round trip." (Source)

Rp = Slant Range, Satellite to MH370
Dp = Distance, Satellite to MH370
Hp = Height, Satellite to MH370
Ep = Elevation Angle, MH370 to Satellite

Rg = Slant Range, Satellite to GES
Dg = Distance, Satellite to GES
Hg = Height, Satellite to GES
Eg = Elevation Angle, GES to Satellite

Hs = Height, Satellite to ground

T = (2 x (Rp + Rg) ) / c
T = round trip time of messages
c = speed of light

Rg = sqrt( (Dg x Dg) + (Hg x Hg) )

Rp = ((T x c) / 2) - Rg

Dp = sqrt( (Rp x Rp) - (Hp x Hp) )

Notes:

Drawing Not To Scale

Hp unknown, test for Satellite Height (Hs) minus MH370 Height (0 to 45000 feet)

delta times calculated from Inmarsat MH370 log file will include various overhead times that need to be determined and subtracted out, when computing Rp

Revision 1: Updated diagram on June 02, 2014. Updated blog post on June 03, 2014.

Diagram posted on May 30, 2014:

MH370's estimated maximum range, based on UAE343, with Inmarsat Arcs added

Hover over image to open it in a larger view.

I updated my MH370's estimated maximum range, based on UAE343 image, by adding the Inmarsat Arcs that were shown on a Malaysian Government image dated 17/03/2014. (I don't have the link for it.)

I'm still analyzing the Inmarsat MH370 Data Communication Logs (PDF), but I don't have anything ready to post yet.

In case you hadn't heard, today they said none of the underwater pings that they had detected were from MH370's black boxes. That came as no surprise to me, considering the fact that the signals they detected were outside of the black box tolerance specifications.

Inmarsat Data Plot with Estimated Burst Frequency Offset (Hz) values added

Hover over image to open it in a larger view.

I added estimated Burst Frequency Offset (Hz) values to Inmarsat's "MH370 measured data against predicted tracks" plot.

Various news organizations are quoting Acting Transport Minister Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein as saying that the raw data from Inmarsat will be released on Tuesday, May 27: "This is what I have been told and that it will be released tomorrow."

My Estimated Burst Frequency Offset (Hz) values

Data   UTC    Hz
Point  Time   Offset
1      16:30   88.54
2      16:40  125.00
3      16:56  158.33
4      17:07  132.29
5      18:23  272.92
6      18:25  175.00
7      18:27  142.71
8      19:40  112.50
9      20:40  140.63
10     21:40  167.71
11     22:40  203.13
12     00:11  252.08

    Time margin of error: +/- 2 min
    Hz margin of error +/- 2.08 Hz

Notes:

1) In a previous post with time stamps added, I showed the xx:40 times as xx:41 because of MH370's take off time of 16:41:43. However, due to the granularity of the tool I'm using to estimate the values on the Inmarsat Data Plot, I am showing the times as xx:40 in this post. There is a margin of error of + or - 2 minutes for all of my time estimates.
2) There is a margin of error of + or - 2.08 Hz for all of my offset estimates.
3) I have seen various news reports about the total number of measured Inmarsat data points and the number of measured data points received after the ACARS was disabled. The plot released by Inmarsat shows a total of 12 measured data points from 16:30 UTC to 00:11 UTC.

MH370's estimated maximum range, based on UAE343

Hover over image to open it in a larger view.

At 18:22 UTC, UAE343 was flying at 34,000 feet in close proximity to where they identified MH370 as being at that same time (Last Air Defense Radar Point on their Preliminary Report map).

Based on that fact, I created a circle, with an origin at KUL,  to show the estimated maximum straight line range that MH370 could have traveled shortly before the last satellite communication at 00:19 UTC.

Reference points at 00:13 UTC:
A) UAE343, DXB
B) AXM5878, KUL
C) CCA1877, PEK
D) Inmarsat-3 F1 Satellite

Notes:
DXB is Dubai International Airport in Dubai, United Arab Emirates
KUL is Kuala Lumpur International Airport in Sepang (near Kuala Lumpur), Malaysia
PEK is Beijing Capital International Airport in Beijing, People's Republic of China

Inmarsat-3 F1 Satellite is located at 0N 64.5E 35,800 km above sea level. It is a geostationary satellite, but it wobbles up and down over the equator, in a figure-8 pattern.

I captured the screen shot using FlightRadar24 and filtered on Callsigns UAE343, AXM5878, and CCA1877.

Airplane Traffic at 18:22 UTC (Last Air Defense Radar Point of MH370)

Hover over image to open it in a larger view.

I captured a screen shot of all of the airplane traffic at 18:22 UTC on FlightRadar24, and used the Preliminary Report Map Showing MH370’s Flight Path to add the flight path and approximate locations for MH370 at18:01:49 UTC and 18:22 UTC.

I also added certain waypoints and airplane call signs, as well as MH370's last approximate transponder location at 17:22 UTC.

At 18:22 UTC, UAE343 was flying at 34,000 feet in close proximity to where they identified MH370 as being at that same time.

Timeline of events, by the hour (Revision 2)

16:30    UTC Inmarsat plot satellite data (estimated time) [1]
16:41:43 UTC MH370 takes off [2] / Inmarsat plot satellite data

17:01:16 UTC MH370 reported maintaining FL 350
17:07:29 UTC last ACARS message (page 4) / Inmarsat plot satellite data
17:07:49 UTC last ACARS communication (page 3)
17:07:55 UTC MH370 reported maintaining FL 350
17:11    UTC 30 minute interval / No data point on plot
17:19:24 UTC KLATCC instructed MH370 to contact HO CHI MINH Air Traffic Control Centre (HCMATCC) on radio frequency 120.9 MHz. MH 370 acknowledged with "good night Malaysian Three Seven Zero". (pilot OR co-pilot says "good night Malaysian Three Seven Zero")
17:21    UTC transponder message (35000 feet 471 kts 6.97N 103.63E) [3]
17:21:04 UTC radar screen at KLATCC observed MH370 passing over waypoint IGARI
17:21:13 UTC radar label for MH370 disappeared from radar screen at KLATCC
17:2x:xx UTC HCMATCC radar contact was established over IGARI but there was no verbal contact
17:22?   UTC last transponder message HCMATCC observed radar blip disappeared at waypoint BITOD [2],[4]
17:28    UTC Thai radar detects "unknown aircraft" "in the South China Sea, moving southwest towards Kuala Lumpur and the Strait of Malacca" [5]
17:30    UTC True/False? Pilot bound for Narita, Japan (MH88/MAS88?) asked by Vietnamese ATC to attempt to contact MH370 gets "mumbling/static" reply from MH370, but no Mayday [6]
17:38    UTC HCMATCC made a query to KLATCC on whereabouts of MH370
17:41    UTC No data point on plot
17:57:02 HCM informed KL-ATCC that there was officially no contact with MH370 until this time. Attempts on many frequencies and aircraft in the vicinity received no response from MH370. (True/False? Were MH88/MAS88 and/or JL750/JAL750 asked by HCMATCC to attempt to contact MH370?)

18:11    UTC 30 minute interval / No data point on plot
18:22    UTC last Malaysian military radar signal of "unknown aircraft" 200 miles northwest of Penang at 29,500 feet
18:23    UTC Inmarsat plot satellite data (estimated time)
18:25    UTC Inmarsat plot satellite data (estimated time)
18:27    UTC Inmarsat plot satellite data (estimated time)
18:40    UTC later denied: Malaysian General Rodzali Daud says "unknown aircraft" detected near Pulau Perak at 29,500 feet [7],[8]
18:41    UTC No data point on plot

19:11    UTC 30 minute interval / No data point on plot
19:41    UTC Inmarsat plot satellite data

20:11    UTC 30 minute interval / No data point on plot
20:41    UTC Inmarsat plot satellite data

21:11    UTC 30 minute interval / No data point on plot
21:30    UTC Kuala Lumpur Rescue Coordination Centre activated
21:41    UTC Inmarsat plot satellite data

22:11    UTC 30 minute interval / No data point on plot
22:41    UTC Inmarsat plot satellite data

23:11    UTC 30 minute interval / No data point on plot
23:41    UTC No data point on plot

00:11    UTC Inmarsat plot satellite data (last complete message)
00:19    UTC last message received by satellite ground station (initiated by plane?)
00:41    UTC No data point on plot (plane no longer transmitting)


References:

[1] http://mh370research.blogspot.com/2014/05/inmarsat-data-plot-with-time-stamps.html
[2] http://www.avherald.com/h?article=4710c69b/028
[3] http://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/mh370/#2d81a27
[4] https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.10152221414824355.1073741996.72613804354
[5] http://manilastandardtoday.com/2014/03/20/thai-reports-unknown-plane-blipped-its-radar/
[6] http://www.nst.com.my/nation/general/font-color-red-missing-mh370-font-pilot-i-established-contact-with-plane-1.503464
[7] http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/11/malaysia-airlines-military-idUSL3N0M835C20140311
[8] http://stream.wsj.com/story/malaysia-airlines-flight-370/SS-2-475558/SS-2-478603/


Notes:
Inmarsat plot satellite data times are estimated from their plot (see Reference [1]).

Every 1 hour interval at xx:41 is based on MH370 takeoff time and "ping handshake" being every hour. It corresponds to data point times shown on the Inmarsat plot

Every 30 minute interval at xx:11 (and xx:41) is based on Rolls Royce engines sending data every 30 minutes. It corresponds to the 00:11 data point time shown on the Inmarsat plot


MH370 playback data:

http://www.flightradar24.com/2014-03-07/16:30/12x/22.23,61.87/6

(I accidentally deleted the original Timeline post, which used to be here: http://mh370research.blogspot.com/2014/05/timeline-of-events-by-hour.html)

ACARS disabled at 1:07 am MYT (17:07 UTC)

Hover over image to open it in a larger view.

Based on official statements, and statements made by "unnamed U.S. officials," I believe MH370's Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) was disabled at 1:07 am MYT (17:07 UTC).

March 13: ABC News [1]

"Two U.S. officials tell ABC News" The data reporting system, they believe, was shut down at 1:07 a.m. The transponder -- which transmits location and altitude -- shut down at 1:21 a.m.

March 15: Malaysian PM Najib Razak [2]

Based on new satellite information, we can say with a high degree of certainty that the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) was disabled just before the aircraft reached the East coast of peninsular Malaysia. Shortly afterwards, near the border between Malaysian and Vietnamese air traffic control, the aircraft’s transponder was switched off.

Preliminary Report [3]

17:01:16 UTC MH370 reported maintaining FL 350
17:07:29 UTC last ACARS message (page 4) / Inmarsat plot satellite data
17:07:49 UTC last ACARS communication (page 3)
17:07:55 UTC MH370 reported maintaining FL 350


Note: The screen shot was captured at FlightRadar24.


1. http://abcnews.go.com/International/malaysia-airliner-pinging-indication-crashed-indian-ocean/story?id=22894802
2. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/15/malaysian-pms-full-statement
3. https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.10152221402889355.1073741995.72613804354

Pulau Perak sighting at 2:40am

Hover over image to open it in a larger view.

On Mar 11, 2014, Malaysian General Rodzali Daud was quoted as saying that at 18:40 UTC (2:40am) an "unknown aircraft" was detected near Pulau Perak, flying at 29,500 feet. He subsequently denied saying that.

At 18:33 UTC, KLM836, another 777, passed very close to Pulau Perak, flying at 30,000 feet.

Information about airplanes in that vicinity at 18:33 UTC:

KLM836 777-206(ER) 30,000 ft
UAE405 777-36N(ER) 33,300 ft
UAE343 777-36H(ER) 34,000 ft

One article about Daud's statements can be read on Reuters.

The screen shot was captured at FlightRadar24.