Investigators knew underwater signals invalid, yet they chose to waste 8 weeks investigating them

The MH370 Search Areas Report dated June 26, 2014 proves the fact that the Investigators knew the underwater signals detected by Ocean Shield were invalid, yet they chose to waste 8 weeks investigating them.

It is also a fact that prior to the detection of those underwater signals, the Investigators leading the search for MH370 already knew Inmarsat's "hotspot" location for MH370. 

From the June 26 report:

The flight recorders fitted to 9M-MRO were equipped with Dukane DK100 underwater acoustic beacons that activate on immersion in salt or fresh water. The beacons had the following characteristics:
- Operating frequency: 37.5 ± 1 kHz
- Pulse Length: 10 ms
- Repetition rate: 1 pulse per second
- Operating life following immersion: minimum 30 days

The ADV-OS deployed the first towfish on 4 April 2014. The first towfish exhibited acoustic noise and was required to be changed out with the second towfish. The second towfish was deployed on 5 April 2014 and shortly after, whilst descending, detected an acoustic signal at a frequency of approximately 33 kHz. Further detections were made on 5 April 2014 and on 8 April; however, none were able to be repeated when following an opposing track. The first towfish was redeployed with no detections.

A review of the Ocean Shield acoustic signals was undertaken independently by various specialists. The analyses determined that the signals recorded were not consistent with the nominal performance standards of the Dukane DK100 underwater acoustic beacon. The analyses also noted that whilst unlikely, the acoustic signals could be consistent with a damaged ULB. However, it was decided that that an ocean floor sonar search should be performed to fully investigate the detections.

Hypothetical MH370 flight path to Perth, Australia via Cocos Keeling Island

Hover over image to open it in a larger view.

I created a picture to show a hypothetical flight path to Perth, Australia, via Cocos Keeling Island, that MH370 might have flown. This should be my last follow up to my posts here and here.

The Investigators insist MH370 could only have flown south. Their diagrams show MH370 flying close to Cocos Keeling Island and then continuing southeast after that. But with no explanation whatsoever, they use extremely slow estimated speeds for MH370, ranging from 325 kts to 350 kts.

Coincidentally, those slow speeds prevent MH370 from reaching the outer detection range of JORN until close to the time of MH370's final communications with the Inmarsat satellite.

However, MH370 and UAE343 were near each other at 18:22 UTC. Therefore MH370 would have been able to travel the same approximate distance as UAE343 had by 00:19 UTC. (UAE343 was near its destination of Dubai International Airport in the United Arab Emirates at that time.)

The only way MH370 could've gotten from its last known transponder location near IGARI/BITOD at 17:21 UTC to WMPK (Penang/Butterworth) and then to VAMPI/MEKAR by 18:22 UTC, which is the path Investigators say it flew, is if it was flying at a minimum speed of approximately 470 kts.

So why would whoever was in control of MH370 suddenly decide to start flying at a slower speed, as the Investigators claim?

And how did whoever was in control of MH370 keep the rest of the passengers and crew subdued during this more than 6 hour flight diversion?

If MH370 did fly south, which one of these stories is more plausible, knowing that the person in control of MH370 took deliberate actions to evade detection while MH370 was flying:

1) The person in control of MH370 flew south to the middle of nowhere to commit suicide, rather than doing a nose dive immediately in the location where the transponder went off.
2) The person in control of MH370 flew south to the middle of nowhere to land on the runway of a remote island.
3) The person in control of MH370 flew south to commit a 9/11 style attack on Australia, which was reachable.

Notes:
1) I am not saying MH370 did fly toward Perth for a 9/11 style attack. I am only saying that it was possible. (See my previous posts for more details on that topic.)
2) Australia has never said whether or not JORN detected MH370.
3) I used the following to plot the course shown in the picture:

Flight Path:
WMKK WMKN IGARI BITOD IGARI WMCK WMKP VAMPI
MEKAR NILAM VIROT UPROB YPCC MERIB YPPH

That flight plan and speed can be plotted on SkyVector.

Approximate times based on 470 kts:

MEKAR 18:22 UTC
NILAM 18:26 UTC
VIROT 18:38 UTC
UPROB 19:16 UTC
YPCC  20:58 UTC (Cocos-Keeling Island)
MERIB 23:55 UTC
YPPH  00:21 UTC (Perth)

JORN's detection range and MH370

Hover over image to open it in a larger view.

I created a picture to show a hypothetical MH370 flight path to Perth, Australia and the estimated coverage (detection range) of JORN. This is a follow up to my previous post.

As I said in that post, the Investigators initially stated that the actions on board MH370 were consistent with deliberate action.

The Investigators also insist that MH370 flew south. Because of that, JORN is very relevant to MH370's disappearance.

Look at all of the diagrams where the Investigators show MH370 flying to, then compare that to the range of JORN at Laverton.

If JORN had been active at the time, it would've seen MH370. Presumably Australia would've sent fighter jets to intercept it, after it failed to respond to attempts to contact it over the radio. (I don't think Australia would've ignored it, the way Malaysia did when it flew over their land, but I could be wrong.)

Whoever was in control of MH370 took deliberate actions, including turning off the transponder when MH370 was in an ATC primary radar blind spot (as reported on BBC Two's Horizon programme "Where is Flight MH370?"). Perhaps this same person assumed JORN wouldn't be active (the literature all says that) and used that to his advantage as well.

Regardless of which exact flight path MH370 took, as it headed southeast in the Investigator's diagrams, it would've entered JORN's detection range.

Whoever was in control of MH370 was making every effort to evade detection. Therefore I think it is reasonable to conclude that if MH370 did fly south, the person in control of it relied on JORN not being active during the time that MH370 would be flying southeast. That also means the person took advantage of a weakness in Australia's defense, if MH370 actually did enter JORN's coverage area (even if that reason was because JORN was off at the time). However, Australia has never made a statement about whether or not JORN detected MH370.

Notes:
1) I am not saying MH370 did fly toward Perth for a 9/11 style attack. I am only saying that it was possible. (See my previous post for more details on that topic.)
2) The last flight leg shown in this picture, from Perth to Laverton, was only present to allow me to create a circle with an origin at Laverton, to show its estimated detection range.

JORN and MH370's possible flight path for a 9/11 style attack on Perth, Australia

Hover over image to open it in a larger view.

Based on the fact that the Investigators initially stated that the actions on board MH370 were consistent with deliberate action, and based on the fact that the Investigators insist MH370 could only have flown South, I decided to determine if Perth, Australia could be reached, within the time that the Investigators have said MH370 was communicating with the Inmarsat satellite/ground station, for a possible 9/11 style attack on Perth. It could.

I am not saying MH370 did fly toward Perth for a 9/11 style attack. I am only saying that it was possible, using these flight waypoints:

WMKK WMKN IGARI BITOD IGARI WMCK WMKP VAMPI MEKAR NILAM VIROT UPROB MERIB YPPH

Using a conservative estimate of 470 kts for that entire path, MH370 would've reached Perth in 7 hours and 34.5 minutes. That time is less than the 7 hours and 38 minutes that the Investigators say MH370 communicated with the Inmarsat satellite/ground station for, from its takeoff at 16:41 UTC to its final Log-on at 00:19 UTC.

That flight plan and speed can be plotted on SkyVector.

The deliberate actions on MH370 included relying on the fact that in the location where the transponder went off, MH370 was in an ATC primary radar blind spot (as reported on BBC Two's Horizon programme "Where is Flight MH370?"). If the final destination was Perth, the deliberate actions also appear to have relied on JORN not being active as MH370 approached. (Note that I prefaced that statement with "If".)

Australia has never made a statement about whether or not JORN, which has an operating range of 1000–3000km, detected MH370. However, if JORN's Laverton OTHR system, which has a coverage area that extends through 180 degrees, didn't detect MH370, it reveals a weakness in Australia's defense.


Initial news reports about deliberate action:

On March 13, ABC News reported that unnamed US officials told them the actions on board MH370 were deliberate.

On March 15, Malaysian prime minister Najib Razak confirmed those unnamed US officials' statements:

Early this morning I was briefed by the investigation team – which includes the FAA [US Federal Aviation Administration], NTSB [US National Transportation Safety Board], the AAIB [Uk Air Accidents Investigation Branch], the Malaysian authorities and the acting minister of transport – on new information that sheds further light on what happened to MH370.

Based on new satellite information, we can say with a high degree of certainty that the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) was disabled just before the aircraft reached the East coast of peninsular Malaysia. Shortly afterwards, near the border between Malaysian and Vietnamese air traffic control, the aircraft’s transponder was switched off.

From this point onwards, the Royal Malaysian Air Force primary radar showed that an aircraft which was believed – but not confirmed – to be MH370 did indeed turn back. It then flew in a westerly direction back over peninsular Malaysia before turning northwest. Up until the point at which it left military primary radar coverage, these movements are consistent with deliberate action by someone on the plane.

Today, based on raw satellite data that was obtained from the satellite data service provider, we can confirm that the aircraft shown in the primary radar data was flight MH370. After much forensic work and deliberation, the FAA, NTSB, AAIB and the Malaysian authorities, working separately on the same data, concur.

Inmarsat's "hotspot" location known prior to detection of underwater pings (BBC Horizon programme)

Chris Ashton, Inmarsat

Chris Moore, Phoenix International

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The BBC Two's Horizon programme "Where is Flight MH370?" revealed the fact that prior to the Ocean Shield detecting any underwater pings, the Investigators leading the search for MH370 already knew Inmarsat's "hotspot" location for MH370, and Inmarsat themselves expected Ocean Shield to go to that hotspot location to listen for pings from MH370's black boxes.

But that isn't what happened.

Instead, Ocean Shield spent 2 months searching an area where they had detected four underwater signals that were outside of the specifications of a black box Underwater Locator Beacon (ULB).

The programme also documented the fact that the experts on the Ocean Shield were aware that false detections were possible, because it had happened with HMS Echo.

Yet the Investigators expect everyone to believe that they didn't realize the four underwater signals detected by Ocean Shield weren't valid until 8 weeks later.

That is implausible.

The Investigators had absolute confidence in Inmarsat's analysis, so when the team detected signals that weren't in Inmarsat's "hotspot" location, why wouldn't they verify them?

The experts onboard Ocean Shield knew HMS Echo had detected an invalid signal, so for that reason alone, why wouldn't they verify the signals they detected?

And despite Chris Moore, of Phoenix International, stating during the programme that they did verify the signals, the Investigators didn't announce that the signals weren't valid until 8 weeks later.


The following is my transcript of statements made by Chris Ashton of Inmarsat, and Chris Moore of Phoenix International, during the BBC Two's Horizon programme "Where is Flight MH370?" which aired on June 17, 2014. The youtube video for the programme is here.

Starting at 43:43 Chris Ashton of Inmarsat said, "We can identify a path that matches exactly with all those frequency measurements and with the timing measurements and lands on the final arc at a particular location, which then gives us a sort of a hotspot area on the final arc where we believe the most likely area is."

Starting at 45:01 Chris Moore, of Phoenix International, who had been on Ocean Shield, said, "HMS Echo believed they had detected a 37 and a half kilohertz pulse in the water so we headed to that area and came up with a search plan."

Starting at 47:28 Chris Moore said, "During that survey leg HMS Echo was able to deduce that the 37 and a half kilohertz pings they were hearing were, uh, not valid."

Starting at 47:46 Chris Moore said, "At that point we regrouped and went back to our best known last position, being the, uh, eight minute arc, and our intention was to work our way south. South was determined to have a higher probability, a more probable, uh, flight path."

Note: The "eight minute arc" refers to time 00:19 UTC, when MH370 sent a Log-on message to the satellite/ground station, the satellite/ground station sent several messages back to MH370, and then MH370 sent an Acknowledge back to the satellite/ground station.

Starting at 48:33 Chris Moore said, "It's theorized to have been that the plane was going down. Low on fuel. It did a roll. When the plane rolled the fuel then uh the engine was able to restart and part of the startup sequence was initializing this, this handshake with the Inmarsat. And it was a incomplete handshake. So we're working on the premise that perhaps this last handshake is where the plane was in its final stages."

Starting at 55:25 Chris Moore said, "And we had a detection. Big moment. Uh, are you sure that's what we heard? Are you sure that's what we're, is it not us? Uh, you know. It was elation and panic, and self doubt. Um, wonderment to let's get busy and find this thing. Let's track it down."

Starting at 56:15 Chris Ashton said, "My thoughts were they were probably going to traverse down the final arc to go over our hotspot area. But of course they, they found their, their ping detection fairly early on."

Starting at 56:35 Chris Moore said, "The decision was made, uh, we had enough detections, and it was time to shift over to the AUV ops."

Starting at 57:39 Chris Aston said, "It was by no means, um, an unrealistic location but it was further to the north east than our area of highest probability."

MH370 climbed to 45,000 feet (March 14 news report)

On March 13, unnamed US officials told ABC News this:

    Two U.S. officials tell ABC News the U.S. believes that the shutdown of two communication systems happened separately on Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. One source said this indicates the plane did not come out of the sky because of a catastrophic failure.

    The data reporting system, they believe, was shut down at 1:07 a.m. The transponder -- which transmits location and altitude -- shut down at 1:21 a.m. 

    U.S. officials said earlier that they have an "indication" the missing Malaysia Airlines jetliner may have crashed in the Indian Ocean and is moving the USS Kidd to the area to begin searching.

On March 14 (first published Inmarsat Arc diagram?), unnamed US officials told the New York Times this:

    SEPANG, Malaysia — Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 experienced significant changes in altitude after it lost contact with ground control, and altered its course more than once as if still under the command of a pilot, American officials and others familiar with the investigation said Friday.

    Radar signals recorded by the Malaysian military appeared to show that the missing airliner climbed to 45,000 feet, above the approved altitude limit for a Boeing 777-200, soon after it disappeared from civilian radar and turned sharply to the west, according to a preliminary assessment by a person familiar with the data.

    The radar track, which the Malaysian government has not released but says it has provided to the United States and China, showed that the plane then descended unevenly to 23,000 feet, below normal cruising levels, as it approached the densely populated island of Penang.

    There, officials believe, the plane turned from a southwest-bound course, climbed to a higher altitude and flew northwest over the Strait of Malacca toward the Indian Ocean.

    But the Malaysian military radar data, which local authorities have declined to provide to the public, added significant information about the flight immediately after ground controllers lost contact with it. The combination of altitude changes and at least two significant course corrections could have a variety of explanations, including that a pilot or a hijacker diverted the plane, or that it flew unevenly without a pilot after the crew became disabled.

Chris Moore says Ocean Shield team verified underwater pings (BBC Horizon programme)

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I captured screen images from BBC Two's Horizon programme "Where is Flight MH370?" that show Chris Moore, of Phoenix International, who stated the following, starting at approximately 55:25 into the video:

Chris Moore:
"And we had a detection. Big moment. Uh, are you sure that's what we heard? Are you sure that's what we're, is it not us? Uh, you know. It was elation and panic, and self doubt. Um, wonderment to let's get busy and find this thing. Let's track it down."

Clearly, based on his statements, the Ocean Shield team verified the signal they detected, to make sure it was not them, and to make sure that it was within the specifications for a Black Box Underwater Locator Beacon (ULB). Clearly they did not simply assume the signal was valid.

Yet as we know, none of the four underwater signals they detected were valid, and they were not within the specifications for a ULB.

So if they verified the underwater signals when they first detected them, which he stated that they did, can one conclude that they ignored the fact that they weren't valid?

What other conclusion can one draw, when the Horizon programme described the team as follows, starting at approximately 44:19 into the video:

At the forefront of the search, was the Ocean Shield. A six and a half thousand ton Australian Navy support vessel, carrying an elite team of deep ocean salvage experts.

The  Youtube video for the programme is here. (Let's see how long it remains there, before the BBC demands its removal.)

Inmarsat's "hotspot" location (BBC Horizon programme)

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I captured screen images from BBC Two's Horizon programme "Where is Flight MH370?" that show the location where Inmarsat's analysis indicates MH370 crashed in the Indian Ocean.

During the programme, Inmarsat stated:

"We can identify a path that matches exactly with all those frequency measurements and with the timing measurements and lands on the final arc at a particular location, which then gives us a sort of a hotspot area on the final arc where we believe the most likely area is," explained (Chris) Ashton.
(Transcript Source: The Guardian)

The programme itself stated:

"Horizon understands Inmarsat's hotspot on the final arc is around 28 degrees south. It is an area yet to be searched."

Yet despite Inmarsat's certainty of their precise final location of MH370, and despite all of the Investigators hailing Inmarsat's analysis as accurate and verified, not only did the Investigators not go to that location to listen for the Black Box underwater pings, the JACC has now postponed the release of their new search zone definition from mid-June to the end of June.

Why is the JACC delaying releasing their new search zone definition, when Inmarsat knows the precise location of MH370, and knew that location prior to taping the Horizon programme?

The Horizon programme itself was misleading, in that it referred to "7 Handshake signals", and defined a "Handshake" as being a signal that was initiated by the satellite/ground station and sent to MH370.

At 18:25 UTC, MH370 initiated a Log-on to the satellite/ground station.

The Horizon programme failed to point out that the 18:25 UTC message was initiated by MH370, not the satellite/ground station, and they didn't provide any explanation for that message.

Note that the last military radar detection of MH370 was at 18:22 UTC. MH370 stopped communicating with the satellite/ground station at 17:07 UTC, but then it initiated a Log-on to the satellite/ground station three minutes after it was no longer within the military radar's range. This is also the same time that MH370 was within close proximity of UAE343. The Horizon programme never mentioned that fact, either.

At 00:19 UTC, MH370 initiated a Log-on to the satellite/ground station.

The Horizon programme described the 00:19 UTC message as a "partial Handshake" that some Investigators have theorized was due to the plane rolling (banking) and fuel restarting the engines, which caused the "startup sequence" on MH370. They also described the message as an "incomplete handshake" despite the fact that MH370 initiated the Log-on and subsequently sent a Log-on/Log-off Acknowledge. While additional messages might have been expected after the Acknowledge, to describe the sequence of messages at 00:19 UTC as "incomplete" is misleading.

On March 13, the US Government was certain MH370 had crashed in the Indian Ocean. They never even mentioned the possibility of MH370 having flown on the "northern arc" path.

White House spokesman Jay Carney said, “It's my understanding that based on some new information that's not necessarily conclusive, but new information, an additional search area may be opened in the Indian Ocean, and we are consulting with international partners about the appropriate assets to deploy.”

The Horizon programme showed a news clip of Jay Carney, and Inmarsat said the information the US Government was referring to had come from them.

So on March 13, the US, the UK, and Australia knew, with certainty, that MH370 could only be in the Indian Ocean, at the location identified by Inmarsat, yet that location still has not been searched. And they wasted two months searching an area where they had detected underwater signals that they should have known were outside of the specifications for a Black Box Underwater Locator Beacon (ULB). And that delay brought them closer to Winter in the southern hemisphere, when the ocean would be too harsh to search, allowing them to postpone the search for several months.

I have tried to remain neutral in my blog posts, but as time goes by, it gets harder to withhold my disbelief and skepticism in what the Investigators claim.

MH370's final location could be near S35.672 E92 (if one believes the Investigators)

Hover over image to open it in a larger view.

I used Inmarsat's 7th Arc image to estimate that the radius of their circle was 2629.4 nmi (nautical miles).

I now estimate that the intersection of the due south flight path is near S35.672 E92, if one believes the Investigators. This latest image is an update to my original post on this topic, which can be read here.

Inmarsat has stated:
"We can identify a path that matches exactly with all those frequency measurements and with the timing measurements and lands on the final arc at a particular location, which then gives us a sort of a hotspot area on the final arc where we believe the most likely area is," explained (Chris) Ashton. (Source: The Guardian)

Yet despite Inmarsat's certainty of their precise final location of MH370, and despite all of the Investigators hailing Inmarsat's analysis as accurate and verified, the Investigators didn't go to that location. Instead, the Investigators chose to waste 8 weeks searching an area where they detected underwater pings that were outside of the specification for a Black Box. Being the experts, they would've known immediately that those signals weren't from MH370.

China determined that the underwater signal that they had detected wasn't from MH370, within a day or so. So how is it Australia failed to do the same with the signals they detected?

Note: I am only posting this to update my original estimate of where MH370's final location might be, based on what the Investigators have stated as facts in this case, and based on my estimate of the Inmarsat 7th Arc Timing Ring. At this point, for me, there are too many discrepancies for me to believe the Investigators.

Why did Inmarsat withhold MH370's initial Log-on Messages?

The first message in the Inmarsat MH370 Data Communications Logs file is at 16:00:13.406 UTC and is a 0x15 - Log-on/Log-off Acknowledge message from MH370 to the Ground Earth Station (GES).

Where is the initial 0x10 - Log-on Request (ISU)/Log-on Flight Information (SSU) message from MH370 to the GES, and all subsequent messages that occurred prior to that 0x15 - Log-on/Log-off Acknowledge message?

As can be seen at 18:25:27.421 UTC and 00:19:29.416 UTC, MH370, which is an Aircraft Earth Station (AES), initiates a Log-on to the GES with a 0x10 - Log-on message, which is responded to with a 0x11 - Log-on Confirm message from the GES to the AES, followed by an exchange of messages between them, prior to the 0x15 - Acknowledge message.

Why did Inmarsat withhold MH370's initial Log-on Messages?

And why isn't any news organization asking that question?

MH370's final location could be near S32 E92 (if the Investigators' assertions are correct)

Hover over image to open it in a larger view.

If the Inmarsat Timing Rings are accurate, and if the Investigators' implication that MH370 flew by waypoints is true, and if the Investigators' insistence that MH370 could only have flown South is correct, then MH370's final location could be near S32 E92, assuming it flew due South after reaching waypoint KETIV.

I estimated the radii of the Inmarsat Timing Rings, then looked for any airplane that might have a correlation with the circle at 22:41 UTC.

SIA352 correlated with their 19:41, 21:41, and 22:41 UTC circles, flying North. I plotted SIA352's distances to the satellite, then mirror flipped and rotated those distances, to estimate where MH370 would be, heading South.

I made the further assumption that if MH370 flew South, as the Investigators insist, and if MH370 flew along waypoints, then I assumed it flew along these waypoints (to avoid land):

VAMPI MEKAR NILAM VIROT NIXUL KETIV S32E92

(I added S70E92 to extend the path down to the South Pole.)

That path correlated with the estimated 18:22 UTC radius, and the 21:41 and 22:41 UTC radii (in the Southern direction).

The 00:11 UTC circle (and 00:19 UTC circle, which isn't shown) intersect with the due South flight path near S32 E92.

Note: I am not saying this is in fact where MH370 is. I am presenting this as one possibility, based on what the Investigators have stated as facts in this case, and based on my estimates of the Inmarsat Timing Rings. Inmarsat has failed to provide the radii of their circles.

Inmarsat log file message data at 17:07:34 UTC

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Originally, I thought I had found an anomaly in the Inmarsat MH370 Data Communication Logs file that was released, at time 17:07:34 UTC.

But upon further examination of the surrounding data, I think I can explain the anomaly and disregard it.

In my Method of calculating MH370's distance from satellite post, I showed a diagram and formulas for how to calculate MH370's distance from the Inmarsat 3F1 satellite.

I extracted only the following message types from the original data file, and only for cases where these messages were one after the other (i.e. no other messages occurred between them):

0x22 - Access Request (R/T-Channel)
0x51 - T-Channel Assignment

At 17:07:34 UTC, the delta time between the messages was 0.020 seconds less than it was for all previous messages of this same type. The delta time was also less than the minimum calculated round trip time.

The minimum calculated round trip time is based on MH370's known Slant Range to the satellite and the Perth GES 305's known Slant Range to the satellite at 17:07:34. But, the 0x62 message before the 0x22 message took 0.020 seconds longer than previous ones, so that might explain this time anomaly.

I was originally going to include all of the data from my calculations in this post, but because I no longer believe there is anything of interest with this data point at 17:07:34 UTC, the anomaly issue is now moot.

I made this blog post for completeness, because I had mentioned this on The Guardian.